Is Twin Butte Energy Ltd. (TBE) On The Operating Table?

Page 1 of 2

“The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble…We want to buy them when they’re on the operating table.” – Warren Buffett.

Twin Butte Energy Ltd. (TSE:TBE) is a yield play from the energy industry that is focused on large original oil in-place conventional heavy oil exploitation. The stock hit some speed bumps a few days ago and has plunged 25% since then on unusually high volume. Will the knife keep falling? To find out, let’s take a close look at the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats now that the blood is in the streets, because this may be a big buying opportunity.

Strengths

Tax Pools: The company has $580 million in tax pools. To an acquirer, these tax pools can shield $145 million of income at a 25% tax rate. So a potential acquirer would have to pay $0.58 per share for buying only the tax pools.

Production Growth: Production has been growing consistently during the last 6 years, and rose from approximately 1,000 boepd in 2006 to 19,200 boepd in December 2012.

Low Risk and Low Decline Wells
: The company has a low risk, heavy oil inventory of over 700 net wells that provides 5-6 years of high capital efficiency. Additionally, the base annualdecline for these wells is as low as 28% in a concentrated asset base around Lloydminster with year round access.
Low Cost Wells with Short Payout Period: The average vertical well cost ranges from $515,000 to $615,000 with an average initial production of 40 – 80 boepd, average reserves per well of 45 – 80 mboe, and a short payout period of 0.8 years.

Funds from Operations (FFO) Stability: The volatility of the operating cash flow for 2013 is significantly reduced because the company has a strong hedging position in place.

Aggressive Bidder: Twin Butte was the most acquisitive Canadian energy company in 2012 after Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSE:CPG), which acquired 6 smaller producers in 2012, expanding its core areas which extend from Canada (Beaverhill Lake, Viking, Bakken formations) to the USA (Uinta Basin). Twin Butte has also been on a consolidation spree and has acquired 5 peers (SwimmingEmergeAvalonWildmereWaseca) in the last 12 months, significantly growing its drilling inventory, which currently is estimated to be over 700 net heavy oil wells.

Annualized Debt/FFO < 2: The company hasn’t any debt issues, and year end 2012 net debtwas $205 million, or 1.4 times Q4 annualized cash flow.

Hefty Dividend: The shareholders are handsomely rewarded by the corporate dividend policy on a monthly basis, as the current annual yield is 8.5%. It is also worth noting that the dividend isn’t at stake because the all-in payout ratio (dividend and capital expenditures) will be maintained at 100%, ensuring the dividend sustainability.

Target Price: The average target price from the 15 analysts who cover the company is $3.46.
3 High-Yielding Retirement Savings Stocks That Pay Monthly Dividends
Weaknesses

Performance Issues: Since late December 2012, Twin Butte has been hampered by a number of operational and reservoir performance issues. Significant downtime was experienced early in January on the heavy oil operations, as the Lloydminster area encountered cold temperatures which created freezing, and run time-related issues on a number of the wells. The wells at Primate Property lost inflow or were experiencing high water cuts. Primate was one of the company’s best performing properties in 2012, but over the last 40 days has seen its production drop from a high of 3,400 bbls/d, by 800-900 bbls/d.
Page 1 of 2
Comments
Insider Monkey Small Cap Strategy
Insider Monkey Small Cap Strategy

Insider Monkey beat the market by 52 percentage points in 24 months. Our beta is only 1.2 (don't click this link if beating the market isn't important to you).

Lists

The 10 Largest Pharmaceutical Companies In the World

The 10 Most Expensive Android Apps

The 9 Most Expensive Designer Bags in the World

The 7 Most Expensive Real Estate in the World

The 10 Most Expensive eBay Items Ever Sold

The 10 Most Expensive iPhone Apps

The 9 Most Expensive Designer Shoes in the World

The 10 Most Expensive Cigarette Brands

The 10 Most Expensive Law Schools in the US

The 10 Best Wall Street Movies

The 10 Most Expensive Golf Clubs Ever Sold

The 10 Most Expensive Golf Memberships

The 10 Best Disney Characters Ever Created

The 8 Best Foods for Gaining Weight

The 10 Most Expensive Colleges in the World

The 7 Most Memorable Ad Campaigns of All Time

The 7 Most Expensive High Schools in the World

The 10 Electric Vehicles with the Longest Range

The 10 Cities with the Worst Drivers in the World

The 10 Most Expensive Dresses Ever Created

10 Islands to Visit Before You Die

10 Famous Celebrities Who Needed Rehab

The 15 Countries with the Largest Oil Reserves

The 10 Most Overused Excuses in the World

The 5 Best iOS Apps You Can’t Get on Android

5 Companies Damaged By Social Media Blunders

The 10 Most Legendary Blues Songs

The 10 Most Lawless Places in the World

4 Reasons China is a Threat to the US

The 17 Most Sugary Drinks in the World

The 10 Most Ruthless Rulers in History

The 10 Greatest Generals in History

Top 8 Travel Destinations for 2015

The 10 Safest Dog Breeds for Children

The 10 Most Stolen Vehicles in the US

The 7 Most Expensive Celebrity Weddings

The 10 Best LoL Teams in the World

Top 10 Worst Marketing Campaigns Ever Produced

Top 5 Diets that Help You Lose Weight

The 10 Best Ways to Stay Awake

7 Artists That Switched Musical Genres

The 10 Most Expensive Cities to Live in New Jersey

The 10 Best High Schools in New York

The 10 Countries With the Least Gender Inequality

The 6 Biggest Musician-Manager Feuds

The 10 Countries with the Cheapest Gas Prices

The 7 Most Theatrical Bands of All Time

The 8 Worst Band Breakups of All Time

The 10 Most Important South American Leaders

The 7 Most Successful Casting Show Winners

Subscribe

Enter your email:

Delivered by FeedBurner

X

Thanks! An email with instructions is sent to !

Your email already exists in our database. Click here to go to your subscriptions

Insider Monkey returned 47.6% in its first year! Wondering How?

Download a complete edition of our newsletter for free!