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Is The Sage Group the Ultimate Retirement Share? – The Sage Group plc (SGE)

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LONDON — The last five years have been tough for those in retirement. Portfolio valuations have been hammered and annuity rates have plunged. There’s no sign of things improving anytime soon, either, as the eurozone and the UK economy look set to muddle through at best for some years to come.

A great way of protecting yourself from the downturn, however, is by building your retirement fund with shares of large, well-run companies that should grow their earnings steadily over the coming decades. Over time, such investments ought to result in rising dividends and inflation-beating capital growth.

In this series, I’m tracking down the UK large-caps that have the potential to beat the FTSE 100 over the long term and support a lower-risk income-generating retirement fund (you can see the companies I’ve covered so far on this page).

Today, I’m going to take a look at accounting and business software specialists The Sage Group plc (LON:SGE).

Sage vs. FTSE 100
Let’s start with a look at how Sage has performed against the FTSE 100 over the last 10 years:

Total Returns 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 10 yr trailing avg
The Sage Group -22.5% 33.7% 27.7% 10.5% 3.6% 11.5%
FTSE 100 -28.3% 27.3% 12.6% -2.2% 10% 10%

Source: Morningstar. (Total return includes both changes to the share price and reinvested dividends. These two ingredients combined are what make it possible for equity portfolios to regularly outperform cash and bonds over the long term.)

Sage’s 10-year average trailing total return shows that it has managed to edge ahead of the FTSE 100 over the last ten years, but has it got the makings of a great retirement share?

What’s the score?
To help me pinpoint suitable investments, I like to score companies on key financial metrics that highlight the characteristics I look for in a retirement share. Let’s see how Sage shapes up:

Item Value
Year founded 1981
Market cap £4.1bn
Net debt £147.6m
Dividend Yield 3%
5-Year Average Financials
Operating margin 23.1%
Interest cover 22.1x
EPS growth 9.5%
Dividend growth 7.7%
Dividend cover 2.0x

Here’s how I’ve scored Sage on each of these criteria:

Criteria Comment Score
Longevity 32 years isn’t all that long. 3/5
Performance vs. FTSE A strong record. 4/5
Financial strength Low gearing, strong cash generation, high margins. 5/5
EPS growth Attractive, steady growth. 4/5
Dividend growth Steady growth amply covered by free cash flow. 5/5
Total: 21/25

Sage’s score of 21/25 highlights the company’s attractions as a retirement share. It has a history of steady dividend increases and for the last six years at least, the firm’s dividends have been covered by free cash flow two or more times, making them very safe and affordable. Sage’s profit margins are high and while its relative youth might be a concern for a retirement portfolio, I think that the way Sage software has become an integral part of business computing — rather like Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) Windows — discounts this risk to some extent.

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