Is The Boeing Company (BA) Back on Track?

The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA got a couple votes of confidence of late, including the approval by U.S. regulators and the Federal Aviation Administration of the “high level system description” of its 787’s electrical system, which in effect certifies the safety of its advanced lithium-ion batteries used in the 787 Dreamliner jets.
The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA)

The other big news is that despite the grounding of its Dreamliner, Boeing posted impressive results for 1Q 2013. This includes EPS up over 20% year over year to $1.44. What’s more is that excluding pension charges, EPS came in at $1.73, compared to consensus estimates of $1.49 (on the same basis). The stock rose 3% on the news, but should investors take this as an “all clear” signal?
The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) is the largest aircraft manufacturer in the world in terms of revenue, orders and deliveries, and one of the largest aerospace and defense contractors.
Boeing has impressive exposure to the commercial aircraft industry, with one of the big tailwinds for the company being the expected recovery in the global economy, where passenger traffic should be the key driver. S&P expects that air traffic will grow 5% annually over the next two decades.

The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA)’s revenue exposure is spread across more than 90 countries around the globe, and it also happens to be one of the major players in the defense business, which accounts for approximately half of its revenue. Boeing’s defense business is a bit more insulated than some of the other major defense contractors, where Boeing has a $71 billion order backlog in the segment as of the end of 2012.

This is given the fact that the U.S. Department of Defense appears to be fond of Boeing’s F/A-18 fighter jet, EA-18G Growler (carrier), P-8A Chinook helicopter, and Apache and Osprey rotorcraft. The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) is also increasing its presence in cyber security, intelligence and surveillance and unmanned systems.

The company has a nearly $390 billion total order backlog and a strong balance sheet, with cash and short-term investments of over $13.5 billion at the end of 2012, compared to long-term debt of only $9.0 billion. What’s more is from a hedge fund angle, The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) has some of the highest interest, with 41 hedge funds longs the stock going into 2013, which was a 14% increase from the prior quarter.

The top hedge fund owner at the end of 2012 was Doug Silverman’s Senator Investment Group, with a $188 million position, accounting for 4.1% of its total 13F portfolio. Meanwhile, Billionaire Ken Griffin was in second with 2.4% of its 13F portfolio allocated to the stock.

Other comps

Embraer
is a Brazil-based holding company primarily engaged in the manufacture of aircrafts. However, the industry is largely dominated by Boeing and Airbus, both of which have more established operations and brand names. Not unlike Boeing, Embraer is susceptible to large earnings impacts due to order cancellations; however, I take solace in the fact that Boeing has a much broader customer base.

Embraer’s loss of its Delta Airlines contract in late 2012 was a big blow to the company. The order was for 40 regional jets and an option for 30 more. However, the stock is relatively flat over the last twelve months, despite missing earnings by at least 20% in each of the last four quarters. What’s more is that with an 18.2 times P/E, Embraer trades in line with Boeing, but I don’t think it deserves to.

While The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) had 41 hedge funds long the stock, Embrarer had only 8 at year’s end, which was a 27% decrease in hedge fund owners from the third quarter. The notable hedge funds dumping their stock last quarter include Arrow Street, who sold off their $10.3 million investment in the stock, and billionaire Israel Englander followed suit, dumping about $4 million worth.

One of Boeing’s chief defense contractor competitors is Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) Grumman  . Its stock is up over 5% this week after posting EPS of $2.03 for 1Q 2013, which beat consensus of $1.74. What’s more is that Northrop provided 2013 EPS guidance of $6.85 to $7.15, compared to consensus of $7.02.
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) is the fourth largest U.S. defense contractor, behind Boeing at third. Yet, the thing about Northrop, unlike Boeing, is that the majority of its business is generated within the U.S., with U.S. government related sales accounting for 90% of sales 2012 sales.
Where Boeing has some insulation thanks to a more diversified product portfolio, the likes of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC),
Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) and General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) are highly vulnerable to the U.S. Government’s budget deficits and political uncertainty. Northrop also generated nearly 45% of its sales in full year 2012 from fixed priced contracts, which limits the company’s ability make a profit should costs come in higher than contract costs.

Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) also had strong negative hedge fund sentiment heading into 2013, with 21 hedge funds long the stock, which was a 13% decrease from the previous quarter. Its most notable hedge fund owner included Jean-Marie Eveillard’s First Eagle Investment Management with the largest position in the stock worth close to $424 million and comprising 1.5% of its total 13F portfolio.

Don’t be fooled

Boeing continues to impress investors and analysts, having beaten consensus expectations in each of the last four quarters. The stock is trading at an attractive valuation, with a PEG of only 0.98. The near term concerns related to the Dreamliner have largely been factored into the stock, and it’s now time to look to the future.

The article Is This High Flyer Back on Track? originally appeared on Fool.com is written by Marshall Hargrave.

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