Inside Citi’s 2013 Agriculture Outlook

Soybeans Go Back and Forth

In a similar pattern to wheat, Citi expects soybeans to rise in 2013, only to fall the year after. Averaging $14.90/bushel in 2012, this commodity is expected to jump to $15.00 in 2013 but fall back to $13.35 the following year. Prices for soybeans have declined as of late due to an improvement in production in the United States as well as South America. Trade is expected to pick up next year, which could help boost prices, along with the weather uncertainties of Latin America and their harvests.

Weather Will Trump All

Though Citi’s predictions are solid based on the data and trends available, the movements of these commodities will ultimately come down to weather. With weather being almost impossible to predict long term (as evidenced by a number of natural phenomenons in 2012), there is no sure thing in the agricultural world. If you are invested or thinking about investing in any of these commodities, remember to keep an eye on weather in key areas around the globe, as that will be the ultimate driver behind price movements.

This article was originally written by Jared Cummans, and posted on CommodityHQ.