How Climate Change Could Destroy Energy Companies: TOTAL S.A. (TOT), Statoil ASA (STO) and More

Page 1 of 2

Climate change may have been responsible for Hurricane Sandy’s $60 billion-plus in damage. It also may be to blame for last summer’s drought that cost another $77 billion. Maybe chalk up record-high temperatures, flooding, and wildfires in Australia to a changing climate. But could stranger weather destroy hundreds of billions in companies’ value?

It’s possible. A lot of the energy reserves that sit in the ground might not be able to be extracted if policy to mitigate climate change aggressively targets limiting carbon dioxide emissions. And a lot of energy companies’ value comes from their proven reserves.

Total SA (ADR) (NYSE:TOT)

Climate primer
The goal of only a two-degree Celsius increase in global temperature, which was the agreed-upon goal in Copenhagen in 2009 to avoid the worst of climate change, is based on an atmosphere with 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide. With a two-degree increase, global sea levels are expected to be more than 20 feet higher and the entire ice sheet over Greenland will eventually melt. But at the rate the planet is currently headed, global temperatures could rise over six degrees Celsius.

To achieve this two-degree goal, the International Energy Agency writes, “No more than one-third of proven reserves of fossil fuels can be consumed prior to 2050… unless carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is widely deployed.” It continues, “Almost two-thirds of these carbon reserves are related to coal, 22% to oil, and 15% to gas.”

Trying to determine what that means for individual companies would be a tough task for individual investors, but, thankfully, HSBC Holdings plc (ADR) (NYSE:HBC) took on this task for European-based companies. The study is more of a thought experiment than hard analysis because there are so many variables, such as how policy would restrict energy reserves and which companies would be affected most. But for long-term investors, it’s a good question to explore — especially with President Obama’s recent emphasis on climate matters in both his inauguration speech and his new pick for chief of staff.

Chopping value in half
According to FT Alphaville, the report imagines a world with less demand for oil and gas with a much more efficient transportation sector. Due to less demand, the prices of oil and gas fall and companies abandon projects that are too costly to pursue. This leaves a portion of proven and probable reserves, or P2 reserves, in the ground. Just how much?

Company Proven Reserves (mmboe) Estimated Unburnable of P2 Reserves
Shell -A) (NYSE:RDS.A) 14,250 <10%
BP (NYSE:BP) 17,748 25-30%
Total (NYSE:TOT) 11,423 10-15%
Statoil (NYSE:STO) 5,426 15%
Eni (NYSE:E) 7,090 10-15%

Source: Company listed reserves; FT Alphaville.

Shell makes out the best of the European companies from the estimates, only restricting a bit less than 10% of its proven and probable oil and gas reserves. BP, on the other hand, leaves more than 25% of its proven reserves in the ground. Total, Statoil, and Eni fall in between.

These numbers don’t seem so bad, until you look at how a cut in reserves and prices affects the market capitalizations of each company.

Shell, BP, and Total lose between 40% and 50% of their market caps. Eni (NYSE:E)’s market cap is more than cut in half. And Statoil faces more than a 60% drop in value. For those looking at energy companies as guaranteed bets on an energy-hungry future, considering the potential of regulation, especially from the European side, is a must.

Page 1 of 2
Comments
Insider Monkey Small Cap Strategy
Insider Monkey Small Cap Strategy

Insider Monkey beat the market by 52 percentage points in 24 months. Our beta is only 1.2 (don't click this link if beating the market isn't important to you).

Lists

The Best B-Boy Movies

Most Awesome Hip Hop Documentaries

Foods That Stain Your Teeth

Richest Doctors in the World

The Best Movie Sountracks Ever

The Highest Grossing Musicals on Broadway

The Most Successful Reality TV Stars

Cheapest Cities to Visit in the US

Most Expensive Summer Camps

Most Expensive Animals in the World

Most Expensive Specialty Crops in the World

Movies That Took Ages to Make

The Longest Hollywood Films Ever Made

Most Expensive Concert Stages

The Richest Bands of all Time

10 Most Corrupt Countries 2013 List

10 Countries with the Highest Quality of Life Index

Most Expensive Mattresses in the World

5 Smallest Countries by Land Area

The Ultimate Heartbreak Songs

Richest Teenagers in the World

10 Most Haunted Places in America

10 Best Places to Retire in Florida East Coast

Top 10 Places to See Before You Die

Top 8 Countries in the World Where Justice Prevails

10 Richest States in America

15 Wealthiest Countries in the World

Richest Singers in the World

Most Expensive Tasting Menu in New York City

Most Expensive Baby Items in the World

Most Expensive Hotel Suites in Vegas

Most Expensive Brunch in New York City

Most Expensive Beef Cuts in the World

25 Best Colleges to Get a Job

Top 10 US Supermarkets

The 25 Most Dangerous Cities in the World to Visit

Most Expensive Xbox Games

Top 11 Cities Where Billionaires Live

Top 10 Most Charitable Companies in America

Most Expensive Seafood in the World

The 10 Wildest Conspiracy Theories

The 10 Best Job Markets in the US

Top 10 Accounting Scandals of All Time

The 25 Biggest Cities in the World

Top 10 Best Paying Virtual Jobs

Most Expensive Leather Shoes in the World

Top 6 Things to Buy in March

The 10 Most Stressful Jobs in America – 2014 List

Top 10 Jobs for Introverted People

Top 10 Honeymoon Destinations in the World

Subscribe

Enter your email:

Delivered by FeedBurner

X

Thanks! An email with instructions is sent to !

Your email already exists in our database. Click here to go to your subscriptions

Insider Monkey returned 47.6% in its first year! Wondering How?

Download a complete edition of our newsletter for free!