Dear Valued Visitor,

We have noticed that you are using an ad blocker software.

Although advertisements on the web pages may degrade your experience, our business certainly depends on them and we can only keep providing you high-quality research based articles as long as we can display ads on our pages.

To view this article, you can disable your ad blocker and refresh this page or simply login.

We only allow registered users to use ad blockers. You can sign up for free by clicking here or you can login if you are already a member.

Halloween Effect’s Ridiculous Prediction For November

Insider Monkey, your source for free insider trading data, doesn’t like using historical results without any theoretical basis. Calendar effects are a good example of this. In September, we published an article titled “September Effect Debunked! Next in Line January Effect” arguing a similar point. This year, the stock market had one of its best September performances since the beginning of World War II, contrary to the September Effect. October is one of the lousiest months in terms of historical returns. But this October, the stock market performance was great.

Historically, November is one of the best months. It’s even better than January. The stock market returned an average 1.41% in the Novembers between 1926 and 2009. If history is any guidance, then you should expect a nearly 1.5% positive performance this November. But wait – this isn’t just an ordinary November. We’re coming off a 10%+ performance during the previous two months. So let’s take a moment and dig through historical returns to calculate November returns in similar market conditions.

Between 1926 and 2009, there were 5 different years where the stock market went up by more than 10% during the September-October period. In 1935, September-October performance was 10.04% and the stock market went up by an additional 5.2% during November. In 1939, September-October stock market performance was 16.2%, but the stock market declined by 4.1% in November. In November 1942, the stock market had a small 0.4% decline, following a 10.2% increase during the previous two months. Forty years later, the stock market once again went up by more than 10% in September-October and this time, November performance was an increase of 4.6%. Finally in 1998, September-October’s 14.8% performance was followed by a 6.2% increase in November. God bless Greenspan and his monetary policies!

Basically, when we had double digit returns during the September-October period, November returns were 2.3% on average. The Halloween Effect tells us that since the November 1998 situation is similar to our current situation, we should even expect a 5% return this November. But we at Insider Monkey disagree. Using historical results without any theoretical basis is useless.

We predict that the stock market is going to disappoint the calendar effect investors in November.

Biotech Stock Alert - 20% Guaranteed Return in One Year

Hedge Funds and Insiders Are Piling Into

One of 2015's best hedge funds and two insiders snapped up shares of this medical device stock recently. We believe its transformative and disruptive device will storm the $3+ billion market and help it achieve 500%-1000% gains in 3 years.

Get your FREE REPORT and the details of our 20% return guarantee today.

Subscribe me to Insider Monkey's Free Daily Newsletter
This is a FREE report from Insider Monkey. Credit Card is NOT required.
Loading Comments...

Thanks! An email with instructions is sent to !

Your email already exists in our database. Click here to go to your subscriptions

Insider Monkey returned 102% in 3 years!! Wondering How?

Download a complete edition of our newsletter for free!