February: A Tough Month for Stocks? Earnings Ahead – Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG), The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

Shares of The Walt Disney Company have risen 8.5% since I published Disney Renews Shareholder Commitment, Remains Strong Buy on December 3, 2012.

Panera Bread Co (NASDAQ:PNRA)
Tuesday, Feb. 5 after market close; EPS $1.74 / Revenue $574.84 million

On November 30, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) fell to its lowest reading in fourteen months. The weakness is likely related to management concerns over the economic impact of Obamacare, following the recent Presidential election. The RPI index improved slightly with a December reading, only to decrease again in January.

For Panera’s fourth quarter, management guided for a same-store sales increase of 5% to 6% compared to the same period in 2011. On December 19, Wedbush upgraded Panera Bread to Outperform from Neutral with a new $190 price target. The research firm believes Panera’s same-store sales are trending at the high end of management’s guidance, and that earnings per share are likely protected from any commodity impact. The Independence, Ohio based Longbow Research followed in Wedbush’s steps and initiated Panera Bread with a Buy rating and $200 price target on January 15. Miller Tabak also upgraded Panera to Buy from Hold on January 25.

ITG Research is among the minority of bears on Wall Street, which believes that Panera Bread’s sales began to slow around Thanksgiving. ITG’s revenue estimate of $565 million is below Wall Street consensus of $575 million. ITG is unique in that the firm does not issue buy-sell recommendations for the companies within its coverage universe. Furthermore, the firm’s research is largely quantitative based which it believes allows for superior analysis.

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The article February: A Tough Month for Stocks? Earnings Ahead originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by John Macris.

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