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Dollar General Corp. (DG), Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR): Why Bigger Is Not Always Better

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Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG) is one of the most resilient stocks that I’ve ever seen. It has a tendency to bounce back if it falls for some reason, like we have seen so far this year after the company had crashed in December last year after cutting its guidance. A similar thing happened earlier this week after Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG) released its latest results.

Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG)

The stock dropped around 9% after Dollar General reduced its earnings guidance for the current fiscal year, but popped more than 3% the next day as some investors might have looked at the drop as an opportunity. Ideally, even I would’ve recommended buying the stock as I had done last year, but Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG) seems to be in a bad habit of trimming down its guidance.

In addition, the company’s results weren’t quite convincing, as it missed the revenue forecast and met estimates on the bottom line. A closer look at the performance in the quarter reveals worrying trends, and for this reason, I think that Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG) might not be the best pick among dollar stores despite having the widest network.

Time for an exit?

Dollar General’s margins have been under pressure of late, which is why the company has had to reduce its guidance. A combination of various factors such as payroll tax increases, tax refund delays, and an increase in inventory markdowns lead to a decline of 89 basis points in gross margin. The company’s product mix seems to be taking a turn for the worse, as consumers are buying lower margin items while sales of non-consumables, which carry higher margins, have been under pressure.

The outlook for non-consumable sales isn’t too bright either even though Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG) witnessed slight improvements in this category at the beginning of the current quarter. But then, the company doesn’t seem quite confident regarding this category and it will be too early to make a call on where non-consumables are going. However, Dollar General is still confident of recording sales growth of 4%-5% this year on the back of better performance in the later half.

However, even if Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG) manages to achieve its full year target going forward, its margins might continue to remain under pressure due to the above mentioned reasons and the fact that the company is counting on sales of tobacco products to drive sales growth, but they are lower-margin products. Sales of tobacco products are expected to improve going forward, and the average basket size should go up as well, but the impact on margins will be clearer going forward.

With more than 10,600 stores, Dollar General is the biggest among the dollar stores, but quite clearly, the company is facing margin challenges as low-margin items are driving sales. In such circumstances, I believe that investors should look elsewhere in the sector and book the gains that they have enjoyed from their Dollar General investment this year.

Another one to avoid

Going by size, Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (NYSE:FDO), is the second-largest dollar store chain with around 7,600 stores. But then, if you are already invested in it, I’m sure you would be cursing your stock picking skills as it is the worst performer in the segment, declining around 3% this year while its peers have recorded solid gains.

The issues with  Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (NYSE:FDO) are a reflection of what Dollar General is going through — delayed tax refunds, payroll tax increase, gas prices, etc. Management didn’t inspire much confidence over the previous conference call as it trimmed the earnings forecast for a second time this year. Its same-store sale growth of 2.9% in the previous quarter was well-below its own guidance of 4%-5%.

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