Is Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO) a buy here? The smart money is taking a pessimistic view. The number of long hedge fund positions stayed the same which is a slightly negative development in our experience
In the financial world, there are a multitude of metrics investors can use to track their holdings. A pair of the most useful are hedge fund and insider trading sentiment. At Insider Monkey, our studies have shown that, historically, those who follow the top picks of the elite fund managers can beat the S&P 500 by a significant margin (see just how much).
Equally as beneficial, bullish insider trading activity is another way to break down the world of equities. There are lots of reasons for a bullish insider to downsize shares of his or her company, but only one, very clear reason why they would behave bullishly. Several empirical studies have demonstrated the impressive potential of this method if shareholders know where to look (learn more here).
With all of this in mind, we’re going to take a look at the recent action regarding Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO).
What have hedge funds been doing with Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO)?
At the end of the fourth quarter, a total of 26 of the hedge funds we track were long in this stock, a change of 0% from one quarter earlier. With hedge funds’ capital changing hands, there exists a few noteworthy hedge fund managers who were increasing their holdings considerably.
According to our comprehensive database, Invesco Private Capital (WL Ross), managed by Wilbur Ross, holds the largest position in Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO). Invesco Private Capital (WL Ross) has a $282 million position in the stock, comprising 26.4% of its 13F portfolio. Coming in second is Diamond Hill Capital, managed by Ric Dillon, which held a $130 million position; 1.3% of its 13F portfolio is allocated to the stock. Other hedgies that hold long positions include Debra Fine’s Fine Capital Partners, and Louis Bacon’s Moore Global Investments.
Due to the fact that Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO) has experienced bearish sentiment from the entirety of the hedge funds we track, we can see that there were a few fund managers who were dropping their full holdings heading into 2013. At the top of the heap, Richard Schimel’s Diamondback Capital said goodbye to the largest stake of all the hedgies we watch, totaling an estimated $21 million in stock.. Cliff Asness’s fund, AQR Capital Management, also sold off its stock, about $6 million worth. These moves are important to note, as aggregate hedge fund interest stayed the same (this is a bearish signal in our experience).
How have insiders been trading Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO)?
Insider buying is best served when the company in focus has seen transactions within the past 180 days. Over the last 180-day time period, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO) has experienced zero unique insiders purchasing, and zero insider sales (see the details of insider trades here).
With the returns shown by our strategies, everyday investors should always monitor hedge fund and insider trading sentiment, and Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO) is an important part of this process.
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