Shumway Capital makes private, public, and seed investments. The family office also makes strategic, incubation, and venture capital investments. Chris Shumway generated 17% annual returns before turning his fund into a family office. Chris Shumway thinks Russia-Ukraine risk is pretty significant and should be hedged. He also thinks the slowdown in Chinese economy and the credit bubble there are significant risks as well. His first investable idea is short CNH. He think China will devaluate its currency to get out of trouble.
His second idea is a long position in Moody’s (MCO). Moody’s has 95% coverage globally, vs. 92% for S&P and 59% for Fitch. Shumway thinks Moody’s will grow EBITDA 4% per year. Combined with pricing power, coverage expansion, margin expansion, and share repurchases Shumway thinks Moody’s total return will be 19-22% per year. The stock has an upside potential of 88%.