Buffett vs. Woodford: Who’s Winning on Tesco PLC (TSCO)?

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LONDON -- This time last year, Warren Buffett, the famous billionaire U.S. investor, and Neil Woodford, the ace U.K. fund manager, took polarized positions on the investment case for top FTSE 100 supermarket Tesco PLC (LON:TSCO).

Tesco had just issued its first profit warning in 20 years. Woodford was a seller. Buffett was a buyer. Rarely have two such renowned investors been effectively at the opposite ends of the same trade.

One year on, which of these two master investors currently looks to have made the right call?

Buffett buys big In the wake of Tesco's profit warning, Buffett acquired an interest in more than 150 million shares, increasing his stake in the company from 3.2% to 5.1%. Buffett did the trade by entering into a somewhat complex equity-swap deal. I'm going to take an average of the prevailing prices at the time -- a round-figure number of 320 pence -- and use that value to judge his performance. At last week's closing price of 350 pence, Buffett is 9% up on the trade.

Woodford spreads his bets Was Woodford wrong to sell Tesco? Well, that rather depends on what he bought in its place. In the report of his Invesco Perpetual High Income fund covering Jan. 1 to June 30, 2012, Woodford told us:

There was relatively little trading activity during the period. The fund sold its holding in International Power plc (LON:IPR) ... and sold its holding in Tesco. ... It increased its holding in Capita PLC (LON:CPI) and also added to holdings in health care companies Elan Corporation, plc (NYSE:ELN), Sanofi SA (NYSE:SNY) and Smith & Nephew plc (NYSE:SNN).

I've summarized Woodford's buys, the prices I calculate he bought at, and the returns to date in the table below.

Company Investment (millions of pounds) Buy Price per Share Share Price as of Jan. 18 Gain/Loss
Smith & Nephew 130 622 pence 697 pence 12%
Sanofi 108 57 euros 72 euros 26%
Elan 56 $14 $10 (29%)
Capita 55 662 pence 798 pence 21%
Total weighted return 11%

There's not much in it, then, after one year: Buffett is up 9% on Tesco, but Woodford is slightly ahead with a weighted gain of 11% -- even though Elan has let him down badly so far.

Prospects What are the prospects for Tesco and Woodford's four companies in the coming year? The following table gives some forecast valuation data.

Company P/E Earnings-per-Share Growth PEG Dividend Yield
Tesco 10.5 5.2% 2 4.4%
Smith & Nephew 14.3 4.7% 3 2.3%
Sanofi 11.6 1.5% 7.7 4.2%
Elan N/A N/A N/A 0%
Capita 14.2 8% 1.8 3.3%

N/A = not applicable due to negative earnings.

On these numbers, Tesco looks a clear "value" winner. The supermarket takes the top spot on a low price-to-earnings ratio and high yield. It also takes second place on earnings-per-share growth and P/E-to-EPS growth; in the case of the latter, low equals better value.

The next best pick on the numbers is outsourcing group Capita, which comes top on two measures: EPS growth and PEG.

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