Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (ABX), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD): Should You Follow Billionaire John Paulson and Dump This Gold Miner?

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Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson has soured on Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX). According to his latest regulatory filings, Paulson sold his options to purchase 360,000 shares of Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX) in addition to trimming his stake in SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSEMKT:GLD).

best gold ETF

But should investors rush for the exits as well? Probably not — there’s a turnaround taking shape at the troubled gold miner.

A turnaround is brewing
Since taking over in June 2012, Chief executive Jamie Sokalsky’s new mantra has been to focus on better capital management and optimizing shareholder returns.

In response to falling gold prices, the company has been forced to make some tough decisions. During the second quarter, Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX) wrote off $8.7 billion in value from its global assets, slashed its dividend by 75%, and cut its administration headcount by 30%. To bolster profitability, Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX) plans to sell, close, or curb production at 12 of its 27 mines. Any operations with production costs above $1,000 per ounce will undergo mine-plan adjustments or be sold .

It’s been bitter medicine for investors to swallow. But like an overweight jogger returning to the gym for the first time in months, the painful process is necessary if Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX) is to get back in shape.

Fortunately, Sokalsky’s efforts appear to be already paying off. Last quarter the company’s production costs fell year over year ahead of analysts estimates. Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX) reduced its capital spending budget by about $1 billion and cut its forecasted expenditures for year end . It’s a complete shift from the Barrick of old. Sokalsky is no longer interested in growth for growth’s sake, but rather, maximizing shareholder value.

Too much pessimism
This impressive turnaround is taking place during one of the most challenging periods in the industry’s history. Over the last few months, we’ve seen record outflows from gold exchange traded products . In addition to Paulson, we’ve seen other legendary investors trimming their SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSEMKT:GLD) shares including Daniel Loeb. Commodities bull Jim Rogers has even turned against the yellow metal.

Have we reached a point of maximum pessimism? Now, I agree that the fundamentals for gold look awful with the Federal Reserve expected to taper its bond-buying program in the upcoming months. But with gold 30% off its all-time highs, hasn’t this been priced in already? It’s not like a more hawkish Fed will really come as a surprise to anyone at this point. If anything, we could be due for an upside surprise if the Fed remains dovish.

The miners are in even worse shape with the Market Vector Gold Miners ETF  down 50% over the past two years. Even George Soros threw in the towel last quarter, selling his entire position in the fund.

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