Apple Inc. (AAPL), China Mobile Deal Expected Next Year: Analyst

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has a bevy of growth drivers on its proverbial doorstep, though the most important may be a potential deal with mobile carrier China Mobile Ltd. (NYSE:CHL).

Originally reported by Apple Insider, Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets mentioned in a note to clients, that “China Mobile’s 3G subscriber growth has been hurting because the carrier does not offer Apple’s iPhone,” periphrastically speaking. In the note, White had this to say:

“China Mobile is the only major carrier in China that does not have a relationship with Apple to sell the iPhone […] We still expect Apple and China Mobile to announce an agreement for the iPhone in 2013.”

White notes that there is a major discrepancy between China Mobile’s wireless presence in the country – about 64% of the market – and its 3G presence, which accounts for just 37% of activity. In a time when China’s total number of 3G subscribers has grown close to 90% since last December, it’s crucial China Mobile reaches a deal with Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) to keep pace with China Unicom Ltd (NYSE:CHU) and China Telecom Corp. (NYSE:CHA), which started selling the iPhone 5 earlier this month (see how the launch stacked up).

So what does China Mobile’s CEO have to say about a potential deal?

In short, it appears that even though China Mobile’s CEO Li Yue has stated that “the business model and benefit sharing still need further discussion,” and we’ve heard rumors that the company wants a cut of Apple’s iTunes sales, the mobile carrier may need Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) more than most originally thought.

While most armchair analysts focus on the total quantity of subscribers in China Mobile’s user base, it’s worth mentioning that just a fraction of these are on 3G. Interestingly, both China Unicom and China Telecom “saw their 3G subscribers double year over year in November” (via Apple Insider) on the toes of the iPhone 5 launch, so it’s likely that a similar deal would boost China Mobile’s footprint in this arena as well.

One thing that remains to be seen, though, is if Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) would elect to release its iPhone 5 via a China Mobile launch, or if it would instead opt to use a newer model, like the iPhone 5S or a low-cost iPhone (see full details here).

Let us know your predictions of a China Mobile-Apple deal in the comments section below, and for more Apple Inc. (NADSAQ:AAPL) coverage, continue reading here on Insider Monkey:

Is Apple Really Facing a ‘Radical Global Slowdown’?

One Analyst’s Very Bullish Take on Cupertino’s Future

The Real Reason You Should Be Buying Apple Post-Selloff