Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Continues To Not Make Sense

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) released its third quarter results after the market close on October 25th and the results should have been disappointing. Revenue was up 27%, but missed expectations; the company reported a loss of $274 million, down from earnings of $63 million in the third quarter of 2011. This earnings number also came in below analyst consensus. This was the third consecutive q/q decline in earnings per share, and also brought Amazon into the red for the year. The fourth quarter’s Christmas shopping season beckons, and Amazon may end up finding the true meaning of Black Friday (which was so named because that was the day that retailers would become profitable for the year), but we bet that none of those retailers clawing to achieve positive profits were valued at over $100 billion. Amazingly, Amazon is currently above its open from Thursday (though it is down 6% in the last month as the market sold off pre-earnings).

Before replacing the profit in Q3 2011 with a loss, Amazon.com, Inc. trades at a trailing P/E of 282- hardly meaningful, and the current trailing earnings number looks even worse now. The current analyst consensus is for $2.50 in earnings per share in 2013, which represents a forward P/E of nearly 100. True, Amazon has spent much of the last couple years on platforms for future business; the Kindle Fire as a vehicle for selling Amazon products, a network of distribution centers to support same-day delivery in many major U.S. cities. However, we’d expect to see those efforts paying off by now, and we are very wary of being so optimistic. Amazon is seeing considerable competition in the tablet wars, and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is prepping a pilot same-day delivery program.

COATUE MANAGEMENT

Tiger Cubs John Griffin and Philippe Laffont both managed funds which owned shares of Amazon.com, Inc. at the end of the second quarter. Griffin’s Blue Ridge Capital owned 1.7 million shares, making it the second largest position by market value in the fund’s 13F portfolio, while Laffont’s tech and services focused Coatue Management had about 790,000 shares. Find more stocks owned by Blue Ridge Capital and by Coatue Management. Billionaire Steven Cohen’s SAC Capital Advisors more than triples its own stake in Amazon during the second quarter and owned over 1 million shares at the end of June (research more stocks that SAC was buying).

We would compare Amazon to a set of peers including Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE:BKS), manufacturer of the Kindle sort-of competitor Nook; Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG), which also offer tablets; and Wal-Mart. Barnes & Noble is not expected to be profitable in this fiscal year (which ends in April 2013) or in the fiscal year after that. Its revenue growth was slightly positive in its most recent quarterly report compared to a year earlier, but we still don’t think it’s a good buy and with 32% of the float held short a number of market players apparently agree. Wal-Mart, meanwhile, delivered revenue and earnings growth in the 5-6% range in its second quarter (which ended in July) over the same period in 2011. It is generating good profits, so much so that even at a market cap of about $250 billion it trades at only 16 times trailing earnings and 14 times forward earnings estimates. It’s also somewhat safer from a bear market than Amazon, with a beta of 0.4 to Amazon’s 0.8. We think it’s a better buy and possibly a pair trading opportunity for an investor patient enough to weather the consistent market love for Amazon.

Apple and Google also provided disappointing quarterly reports recently. Apple currently trades at only 10 times forward earnings estimates and at a five-year PEG ratio of 0.5; while Wall Street analysts may be a little too optimistic about the stock, we think that it should be able to deliver at least moderate growth over the next several years and so is still a good value. Google had its earnings fall 20% in the third quarter versus a year ago despite rising revenue, but at 21 times trailing earnings we’d consider it a much better buy than Amazon. Analysts expect a rebound next year and so the forward P/E is 15; if the large technology company holds to that, we think that its growth prospects will make it a good value.

We like Amazon as a company, but the stock price is still too high. With earnings numbers trending downward and negative, we would expect a correction and would advise investors to consider investing in some of its peers instead.

blog comments powered by Disqus
Insider Monkey Headlines
Insider Monkey Small Cap Strategy
Insider Monkey Small Cap Strategy

Insider Monkey beat the market by 52 percentage points in 24 months Click to see monthly returns in table format!

Lists

The Top 10 States With Fastest Internet Speeds

10 Best Places to Visit in USA in August

Top 10 Cities to Visit Before You Die

Top 10 Genetically Modified Food In the US

15 Highest Grossing Movies Opening Weekend

5 Best Poker Books For Beginners

10 Strategies Hedge Funds Use to Make Huge Returns

Top 10 Fast Food Franchises to Buy

10 Best Places to Visit in Canada

Best Summer Jobs for Teachers

10 Youngest Hedge Fund Billionaires

Top 10 One Hit Wonders of the 90s

Fastest Growing Cities In America

Top 10 U.S. Cities for Freelancers

Top 9 Most Popular Free iPhone Apps

Top 10 Least Expensive Private Business Schools in the US

Top 15 Most Expensive Countries in the World – 2014

Top Businesses to Invest In

Top 5 Things You Might Be Doing Wrong With Your Business

Top 5 Strategic Technology Trends in 2014

Top Rags to Riches Stories

Parenting Behavior That Promotes Future Leaders

Top 5 Mistakes Made by Small Businesses

Top 5 Most Common and Potentially Devastating Financial Blunders

Top 5 Highest Paying Jobs for Web Designers

Top 6 Most Respected Professions that Also Pay Well

Top 5 Pitfalls Investors Should Avoid

Top 6 Lawyers and Policy Makers Under 30

Top 6 New Year’s Resolutions for Entrepreneurs

Top 7 Locations to Check in on Facebook

Top 5 Mistakes made by Rookie eBay Sellers

Top 7 eBook Publishers in 2013

Top 6 Health Industry Trends in 2014

5 Lessons for Entrepreneurs from Seth Godin

Top 5 Success Tips from Jordan Belfort – the Wolf of Wall Street

Best Master’s in Finance Degree Programs

Top 6 Earning Celebrities Over 50

The most expensive sports to play

Top 7 Earning Celebrities Under 25

Best 7 Online Courses to Take: Free Finance MOOCs

Top 6 Bad Habits that Promote Failure

20 Most Valuable Soccer Teams in the World in 2013

12 Most Expensive Countries for Foreign Students

Top 30 Most Influential Women in the World

Top 20 Most Expensive New Year Eve Shows

Top 5 Best Vocational Careers

Top 10 Jobs for 2014 by Salary Gain (Predictions)

Top 5 Digital Trends for 2014

Top 6 Things You Can Do To Increase Your Productivity

Top 9 Trending Smartphones in 2013

Subscribe

Enter your email:

Delivered by FeedBurner

X

Thanks! An email with instructions is sent to !

Your email already exists in our database. Click here to go to your subscriptions

Insider Monkey returned 47.6% in its first year! Wondering How?

Download a complete edition of our newsletter for free!