We recently compiled a list of the 9 Best Trucking Stocks To Buy. In this article, we are going to take a look at where XPO Logistics Inc. (NYSE:XPO) stands against the other best trucking stocks.
Trucking stocks are businesses that offer both local and long-distance freight and cargo transportation and transfer services.
According to Global Market Insights, the growing urbanization and infrastructure development are expected to fuel the global freight trucking industry, which was valued at $2.5 trillion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.2% between 2024 and 2032. The market is divided into local and long-haul groups based on distance. The local segment’s market share was approximately 55% in 2023, and by 2032, it is anticipated to surpass $1.5 trillion. The freight trucking market is divided into many segments based on trucks, including refrigerated trucks, flatbed trucks, truck trailers, and lorry tanks. In 2023, the truck trailer segment’s market share was approximately 36%. In terms of revenue share, the North American freight trucking market had a 35% position in 2023.
Connectivity is anticipated to be crucial in changing these market segments as the industry develops further. Rupert Stuetzle, general manager of EMEA manufacturing and mobility, stated,
“When we look at full logistics-as-a-service solutions, connected services could support higher-level services beyond road transport.”
According to a research report by McKinsey & Company, improvements in fleet management, driver assistance, and the adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) could open up a profit pool of over $3 billion by 2035 because of connected, data-enabled services in commercial vehicles. For instance, fleet management systems already assist big retailers in reducing their diesel usage by up to 8%, and linked ZEVs allow for charge planning and route optimization. By 2030, it is projected that 20–25% of new vehicle sales in the US and 40% in Europe will be ZEVs. Additionally, generative AI is simplifying aftermarket services and vehicle design, with OEM-neutral solutions and new data marketplaces opening up new revenue streams. Initiatives like Eclipse SDV and COVESA are building open data standards, which will improve fleet connection and operational efficiency.
The truck sales industry is anticipated to stay stable in 2024 as a result of these standards. According to the S&P Mobility report, truck sales are likely to stay unchanged in 2024, but due to better economic conditions and the incentive to purchase before 2027 diesel-truck pollution regulations take effect, momentum is anticipated to rise toward a record-setting 2026. Through the midterm, the industry’s adoption of electric cars will be shaped by federal Greenhouse Gas Phase 3 emission regulations and California’s Advanced Clean Trucks law. As per S&P Mobility, the industry’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) ambitions and aspirations are at a crossroads in the next 36 months.
However, recently, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) claimed that the trucking business is suffering greatly as a result of traffic congestion on US highways. According to ATRI’s Cost of Congestion research, operating expenses soared despite fewer hours of congestion, costing the U.S. trucking industry $108.8 billion in 2022—a 15% increase from 2021. This translates to $7,588 per registered truck and more than 430,000 truck drivers sitting idle for a year. Texas, California, and Florida led state costs with $9.17 billion, $8.77 billion, and $8.44 billion, respectively, accounting for 52% of overall costs. The cities with the largest urban delays were Chicago ($3.14 billion), Miami ($3.2 billion), and New York City ($6.68 billion). Fuel expenses rose by $32.1 billion due to the waste of 6.4 billion gallons of diesel.
With the holiday season around the corner, the trucking and logistics industry is experiencing strong Christmas demand, fueled by high consumer spending and e-commerce. According to the National Retail Federation, retail sales are projected to surge by 2.5% to 3.5% over 2023, with a near-record 197 million shoppers expected over Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. In addition, According to a survey, 48% of small and medium-sized businesses anticipate more holiday sales than they did the year before. “Despite negative expectations, the U.S. consumer is still in healthy shape,” remarked Mazen Danaf, staff applied scientist and economist at Uber Freight. Despite supply chain issues and port disruptions, growth has been fueled by investments in fulfillment and route optimization, record Black Friday and Cyber Monday online sales, and faster delivery times.
A mining truck laden with metal ore, driving out of an open-pit mine.
Methodology
We sifted through stocks from Transportation ETF and from the resultant dataset, we chose 9 stocks with the highest number of hedge fund investors, using Insider Monkey’s database of 900 hedge funds in Q3 2024 to gauge hedge fund sentiment for stocks.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
XPO Logistics Inc. (NYSE:XPO)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 48
One of the Best Freight Stocks, XPO, Inc. (NYSE:XPO), is a top provider of freight transportation services based in Greenwich, Connecticut. The business is getting closer to being a less-than-truckload carrier that relies solely on assets. The company’s two primary business segments are European Transportation and North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL). It operates on a global scale. A diverse range of industries are served by the company, including manufacturing, food & beverage, retail, e-commerce, and consumer products.
XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO)’s Q3 of 2024 revenue of $2.05 billion, up 3.7% from Q3 2023’s $1.98 billion, was fueled by increased yields in North American LTL and higher volumes in European transportation. The North American LTL segment’s revenue increased 1.9% to $1.25 billion, while its yield increased 6.7% (fuel excluded). Higher volumes enabled the European Transportation segment’s revenue to rise by 6.8% to $803 million. Moreover, operating cash flow grew by 13.30% year over year.
The price objective for XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) was increased by JPMorgan from $146 to $160. The company claims that less-than-truckload equities “have rapidly re-rated once again” in response to the election results and the perception that the freight recession is ending. The analyst informs investors in a research note that sentiment in the sub-sector is still favorable and that JPMorgan considers less-than-truckload to be the most preferred category in transport, with positioning continuing to move away from U.S. railroads. It modified the models to better represent the operating performance in November.
Farhad Nanji And Michael Demichele’s MFN Partners was the largest stakeholder in the firm from among the funds in Insider Monkey’s database. It owns 11.43 million shares worth $1.23 billion as of Q3.
ClearBridge Large Cap Value Strategy stated the following regarding XPO, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“Among transports, we maintained our preference for less than truckload (LTL) provider XPO, Inc. (NYSE:XPO), to which we added during the period. We funded the XPO addition first by trimming and ultimately exiting United Parcel Service. UPS’s undemanding valuation notwithstanding, we think a healthier industry structure and better pricing dynamics make XPO a better longer-term investment.”
Overall, XPO ranks 2nd on our list of the best trucking stocks. While we acknowledge the potential for XPO as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than XPO but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
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