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Why Upstart (UPST) Still Has an AI-Lending Moonshot Case

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) is one of the best “moonshot” tech stocks to buy according to short sellers. The stock’s latest publicly reported short interest stood at 33.83% of float as of April 30, 2026, according to MarketBeat.

Upstart gave both sides of the trade fresh material on May 5, when it reported first-quarter revenue of $308 million, up 44% year-over-year, while transaction volume rose 77% to 425,356 loans and total originations increased 61% to roughly $3.4 billion. The company also reaffirmed its full-year 2026 outlook for revenue of about $1.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $294 million. That supports the moonshot case: Upstart is trying to make AI underwriting a scaled marketplace layer for consumer credit, not just a fintech lending widget with a fancy hat.

Short sellers still have obvious reasons to stay involved. Upstart’s first-quarter net loss widened to $6.6 million from $2.4 million a year earlier, while contribution margin fell to 50% from 55%, and adjusted EBITDA margin dropped to 13% from 20%. The company also remains exposed to credit-market conditions, funding availability, borrower performance, and lender demand. That leaves UPST as a classic moonshot fintech: huge AI-credit upside, but still chained to the interest-rate and credit-cycle dungeon.

Brian A Jackson/Shutterstock.com

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) operates an AI lending marketplace that connects consumers with banks and credit unions across personal loans, auto loans, home equity lines of credit, and related lending products.

While we acknowledge the risk and potential of UPST as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than UPST and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: 33 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and Cathie Wood 2026 Portfolio: 10 Best Stocks to Buy. 

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The $250 Trillion AI Hype is Real. A few years from now, you’ll probably wish you’d bought this stock.

Dr. Inan Dogan

Dr. Ian Dogan

Co-Founder and Research Director at Insider Monkey

When Jeff Bezos said that one breakthrough technology would shape Amazon’s destiny, even Wall Street’s biggest analysts were caught off guard.

Fast forward a year and Amazon’s new CEO Andy Jassy described generative AI as a “once-in-a-lifetime” technology that is already being used across Amazon to reinvent customer experiences.

At the 8th Future Investment Initiative conference, Elon Musk predicted that by 2040 there would be at least 10 billion humanoid robots, with each priced between $20,000 and $25,000.

Do the math. According to Musk, this technology could be worth $250 trillion by 2040.

Put another way, that’s roughly equal to:

  • 175 Teslas
  • 107 Amazons
  • 140 Metas
  • 84 Googles
  • 65 Microsofts
  • And 55 Nvidias

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Even if that $250 trillion figure sounds ambitious, major firms like PwC and McKinsey still see AI unlocking multi-trillion-dollar potential.

How could anything be worth that much?

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In fact, Verge argues this company’s supercheap AI technology should concern rivals.

Before I reveal the details, let’s talk about how some of the richest people on the planet are positioning themselves.

  • Bill Gates sees artificial intelligence as the “biggest technological advance in my lifetime,” more transformative than the internet or personal computer, capable of improving healthcare, education, and addressing climate change.
  • Larry Ellison — through Oracle, is spending billions on Nvidia chips and partnering with Cohere to embed generative AI across Oracle’s cloud and apps.
  • Warren Buffett — not known for tech hype — says this breakthrough could have a ‘hugely beneficial social impact.

When billionaires from Silicon Valley to Wall Street line up behind the same idea — you know it’s worth paying attention to.

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Dr. Inan Dogan

Dr. Ian Dogan

Co-Founder and Research Director at Insider Monkey

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