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UBS Remains Bullish on ConocoPhillips (COP) Amid Cost Pressures and Softer 2026 Oil Volume Outlook

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is one of the 12 best commodity stocks to buy right now.

On November 12, 2025, UBS reduced its price target on ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) from $122 to $117, reiterating a “Buy” rating. The investment firm cites cost pressures from the Willow project, which are evident from the $1-$1.5 billion capital expenditure increase for the project. These cost pressures, alongside softer 2026 oil volume outlook, drove the price target reduction.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) announced Q3 2025 results on November 6, 2025. The quarter saw production exceeding guidance with 2.399 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Meanwhile, adjusted EPS reached $1.61 per share. Thanks to $5.4 billion in cash from operations, the company recorded $2.2 billion in shareholder returns, including dividends and buybacks. Furthermore, the company lowered its operating cost guidance to $10.6 billion and raised production guidance to 2.375 MMBOED, bolstering investor confidence.

However, the Willow project faced cost pressures due to inflation and localized escalation, reporting an increase to $8.5-$9.0 billion in project capital guidance. Still, the first oil schedule is on track for early 2029. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP)’s management believes Willow remains competitive within the company’s portfolio despite higher capital expenditures. Moreover, strong cash flow was generated from its Lower 48 operations, thanks to improvement in efficiency and reduction in rig counts.

With this, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) expects to achieve a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), a global energy producer, focuses on oil and gas exploration, production, and LNG development.

While we acknowledge the potential of COP to grow, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than COP and that has 100x upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: 10 Best Small-Cap Biotech Stocks to Buy According to Analysts and 11 Best AI Infrastructure Stocks to Buy Right Now.

Disclosure: None.

The $250 Trillion AI Hype is Real. A few years from now, you’ll probably wish you’d bought this stock.

Dr. Inan Dogan

Dr. Ian Dogan

Co-Founder and Research Director at Insider Monkey

When Jeff Bezos said that one breakthrough technology would shape Amazon’s destiny, even Wall Street’s biggest analysts were caught off guard.

Fast forward a year and Amazon’s new CEO Andy Jassy described generative AI as a “once-in-a-lifetime” technology that is already being used across Amazon to reinvent customer experiences.

At the 8th Future Investment Initiative conference, Elon Musk predicted that by 2040 there would be at least 10 billion humanoid robots, with each priced between $20,000 and $25,000.

Do the math. According to Musk, this technology could be worth $250 trillion by 2040.

Put another way, that’s roughly equal to:

  • 175 Teslas
  • 107 Amazons
  • 140 Metas
  • 84 Googles
  • 65 Microsofts
  • And 55 Nvidias

And here’s the wild part — this $250 trillion wave isn’t tied to one company, but to an entire ecosystem of AI innovators set to reshape the global economy.

It’s a leap so massive, it could reshape how businesses, governments, and consumers operate worldwide.

Even if that $250 trillion figure sounds ambitious, major firms like PwC and McKinsey still see AI unlocking multi-trillion-dollar potential.

How could anything be worth that much?

The answer lies in a breakthrough so powerful it’s redefining how humanity works, learns, and creates.

And this breakthrough has already set off a frenzy among hedge funds and Wall Street’s top investors.

What most investors don’t realize is that one under-owned company holds the key to this $250 trillion revolution.

In fact, Verge argues this company’s supercheap AI technology should concern rivals.

Before I reveal the details, let’s talk about how some of the richest people on the planet are positioning themselves.

  • Bill Gates sees artificial intelligence as the “biggest technological advance in my lifetime,” more transformative than the internet or personal computer, capable of improving healthcare, education, and addressing climate change.
  • Larry Ellison — through Oracle, is spending billions on Nvidia chips and partnering with Cohere to embed generative AI across Oracle’s cloud and apps.
  • Warren Buffett — not known for tech hype — says this breakthrough could have a ‘hugely beneficial social impact.

When billionaires from Silicon Valley to Wall Street line up behind the same idea — you know it’s worth paying attention to.

Even as we admire what Tesla, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft have built, we believe an even greater opportunity lies elsewhere…

But the real story isn’t Nvidia — it’s a much smaller company quietly improving the critical technology that makes this entire revolution possible.

And judging by what I’m hearing from both Silicon Valley insiders and Wall Street veterans…

This prediction might not be bold at all:

A few years from now, you’ll wish you’d owned this stock.

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Dr. Inan Dogan

Dr. Ian Dogan

Co-Founder and Research Director at Insider Monkey

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