In this article, we will look at the Top 10 Restaurant Stocks to Buy Under $20.
The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on the Restaurant Industry
Restaurant stocks are showing volatility amid Trump’s tariff impositions across various sectors. On April 7, CNBC reported that while US stocks are tumbling due to the effects of high tariffs on the import of goods from key trading partners, analysts do not anticipate the tariffs to hit most restaurant stocks directly. However, inflation is expected to follow behind, fueled by expert and investor fear of an impending recession. This may put pressure on the spending capacity of consumers, resulting in an economic downturn.
CNBC reported that UBS analyst Dennis Geiger said the following in a note to clients:
“We view the direct cost impact of tariffs on restaurants as manageable, with a focus on select commodity costs, but see the bigger risk as incremental pressure on consumer spending and industry demand.”
CNBC also reported that investor concerns affected restaurant stocks across all sectors. Fast food restaurant chains have historically shown the most resilience during recessions, as consumers looking for cheap dining options typically level down from fast-casual or full-service diners and eateries to fast food options. However, the drop in consumer spending witnessed last year saw fast food restaurants hit hard, as low-income consumers cut their spending to this sector, visiting them less frequently. High-income consumers, on the other hand, continued with their usual dining habits, creating a gap that negatively affected fast food companies. Quick-service restaurants thus underwent same-store sales declines.
How Are High-Income Consumers Behaving?
On March 8, Mario Carbone, Major Food Group chef and co-founder, appeared on CNBC’s ‘Power Lunch’ to discuss the effects of Trump’s tariffs on the food industry and how high-end consumers are behaving in the sector. Talking about New York, he said that the numbers are booming, going above their pre-Covid benchmarks. New York is thus telling us that everything is good, and there is no fear right now in dining in the luxury sector. Stats are up, and restaurants are packed, with consumer energy through the roof. As of right now, there are no signs of slowing at all if one evaluates the spending and trends in restaurant reports.
However, Carbone said that inflation hits the food and restaurant industry just like everyone else. The luxury food sector is responsible to the customer for bringing in the best ingredients for every meal, which is why it has no choice but to pass the effects on to the consumer in case such trends materialize.
With these trends in view, let’s look at the 10 restaurant stocks to buy under $20.
An employee serving a customer at a dine-in Fast Casual Restaurant.
Our Methodology
We sifted through stock screeners, financial media reports, and ETFs to compile a list of 20 restaurant stocks under $20 as of April 13, 2025, and chose the top 10 most popular among hedge funds as of Q4 2024. The list is ordered in ascending order of hedge fund sentiment. We sourced the hedge fund sentiment data from Insider Monkey’s database.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
Top 10 Restaurant Stocks to Buy Under $20
10. Potbelly Corporation (NASDAQ:PBPB)
Share Price: $8.24
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 14
Potbelly Corporation (NASDAQ:PBPB) owns and operates sandwich restaurants. The company offers various food options, including signature salads, toasty sandwiches, soups, chili, cookies, and other fresh menu items. It operates around 440 shops in 31 US states and the District of Columbia, of which 90 are franchised.
In 2024, Potbelly Corporation (NASDAQ:PBPB) reignited unit growth by opening 23 new shops, adding 115 units to its open and committed shop total. It also drove adjusted EBITDA growth of 15% through corporate cost management and expanded shop margins. The company is also focusing on developing long-term growth drivers to strengthen its operations and improve customer experiences, such as the relaunch of its perks loyalty program and significant menu innovation.
Its digital business represented over 40% of Potbelly Corporation’s (NASDAQ:PBPB) total shop sales, a growth of around 100 basis points compared to last year. Craig-Hallum analyst Jeremy Hamblin maintained a Buy rating on the company on April 8. The company ranks tenth on our list of the best restaurant stocks to buy under $20.
9. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG)
Share Price: $17.54
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 15
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG) owns and operates restaurants on a daytime dining concept, providing made-to-order breakfast, lunch, and brunch with cocktails and alcohol. It operates around 572 restaurants, of which 489 are owned by the company, and 83 are franchise-owned.
On April 1, TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles upgraded the rating on First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG) to a Buy, setting a price target of $22.00. The analyst told investors he anticipates 2025 to be a year of improved same-store sales, supported by effective and enhanced marketing strategies and increased marketing expenditure. According to the analyst, the company’s marketing spending as a percentage of revenue is significantly low compared to industry standards, which represents the potential for growth.
He also opined that First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG) is recovering from the sales challenges it came across in 2024, as positive trends are emerging in key markets such as Florida and improvements are materializing in third-party delivery traffic. The analyst also highlighted the potential upside in adjusted EBITDA estimates, especially with the fall in egg prices, which could help relieve commodity inflation pressures. In addition, the opportunity for administrative and general leverage implies a significant advantage. The analyst estimated that these trends put First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG) in a beneficial position for improved financial performance in the coming years.
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