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TESLA – Genuinely Stable Cash Flow, But Valuation Still A Question

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported third quarter revenue of $13.8bn, a 57% year-on-year increase and modestly ahead of market expectations. Growth was driven by a 58% increase in automotive revenues, to £12.1bn, as overall vehicle deliveries in the quarter rose 73% to 241,391. Reduced revenue per vehicle reflects a change in mix from higher priced Model S/Xs to lower priced Model 3/Ys, as well as a 30% decline in automotive credits.

A Loot At Tesla’s Earnings

Operating profits came in at $2.0bn, a 148% year-on-year increase but slightly less than the market had hoped. That was despite setting aside $190m for likely share based payment to Elon Musk in the quarter. The operating margin growth reflects the benefits of increased scale as well as cost reduction. Headwinds in the quarter included lower average sales prices, lower regulatory credit revenue and a $51m bitcoin related impairment.

Capital expenditure in the quarter was $1.8bn, up 81% year-on-year, as the group continues to invest in new factories in Berlin and Texas as well as ramping up production in Shanghai. Free cash in the quarter came in at $1.3bn, versus $1.4bn a year ago.

Tesla finished the half with net cash of $7.9bn, up from $846m.

The group continues to face challenges with semi-conductor shortages, congestion at ports and rolling blackouts that are preventing factories running at full capacity.

Tesla’s share price was broadly flat following the announcement.

Affects Of Supply Chain Issues

Nicholas Hyett, Equity Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown:

“Operating profits are slightly behind market expectations, which we put down mostly to a 30% fall in sales of incredibly lucrative regulatory credits. But despite that these are very impressive numbers.

Headwinds ranging from chip shortages to blackouts to port disruption all mean production is probably behind what management had hoped for. But the extra scale has still given Tesla the raw materials to deliver a step change in profitability. Crucially that profitability now looks far more sustainable. Genuine and substantial free cash flow gives the group the firepower it needs to deliver on its ambitious expansion plans for the next few years.

Unfortunately despite all that progress, and what looks like an increasingly bright future, we still struggle with the group’s valuation. A price to earnings ratio of 122 times earnings is off the chart even for a capital light software business. And Tesla is anything but capital light. Depreciation has stepped up 30% year-on-year, and that’s only going to increase as factories age, meanwhile Tesla’s competition is finally getting its act together on electrification. We cannot fault the group’s progress, but whether that justifies a $856bn price tag is another question.”

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The $250 Trillion AI Hype is Real. A few years from now, you’ll probably wish you’d bought this stock.

When Jeff Bezos said that one breakthrough technology would shape Amazon’s destiny, even Wall Street’s biggest analysts were caught off guard.

Fast forward a year and Amazon’s new CEO Andy Jassy described generative AI as a “once-in-a-lifetime” technology that is already being used across Amazon to reinvent customer experiences.

At the 8th Future Investment Initiative conference, Elon Musk predicted that by 2040 there would be at least 10 billion humanoid robots, with each priced between $20,000 and $25,000.

Do the math. According to Musk, this technology could be worth $250 trillion by 2040.

Put another way, that’s roughly equal to:

  • 175 Teslas
  • 107 Amazons
  • 140 Metas
  • 84 Googles
  • 65 Microsofts
  • And 55 Nvidias

And here’s the wild part — this $250 trillion wave isn’t tied to one company, but to an entire ecosystem of AI innovators set to reshape the global economy.

It’s a leap so massive, it could reshape how businesses, governments, and consumers operate worldwide.

Even if that $250 trillion figure sounds ambitious, major firms like PwC and McKinsey still see AI unlocking multi-trillion-dollar potential.

How could anything be worth that much?

The answer lies in a breakthrough so powerful it’s redefining how humanity works, learns, and creates.

And this breakthrough has already set off a frenzy among hedge funds and Wall Street’s top investors.

What most investors don’t realize is that one under-owned company holds the key to this $250 trillion revolution.

In fact, Verge argues this company’s supercheap AI technology should concern rivals.

Before I reveal the details, let’s talk about how some of the richest people on the planet are positioning themselves.

  • Bill Gates sees artificial intelligence as the “biggest technological advance in my lifetime,” more transformative than the internet or personal computer, capable of improving healthcare, education, and addressing climate change.
  • Larry Ellison — through Oracle, is spending billions on Nvidia chips and partnering with Cohere to embed generative AI across Oracle’s cloud and apps.
  • Warren Buffett — not known for tech hype — says this breakthrough could have a ‘hugely beneficial social impact.

When billionaires from Silicon Valley to Wall Street line up behind the same idea — you know it’s worth paying attention to.

Even as we admire what Tesla, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft have built, we believe an even greater opportunity lies elsewhere…

But the real story isn’t Nvidia — it’s a much smaller company quietly improving the critical technology that makes this entire revolution possible.

And judging by what I’m hearing from both Silicon Valley insiders and Wall Street veterans…

This prediction might not be bold at all:

A few years from now, you’ll wish you’d owned this stock.

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