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Morgan Stanley Expects Soft Industry Backdrop to Persist for Vail Resorts (MTN)

Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) is included among the 14 Best Mid-Cap Dividend Stocks to Buy Now.

On January 16, Morgan Stanley trimmed its price target on Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) to $150 from $151, while keeping an Equal Weight rating on the stock. In its 2026 outlook for gaming, lodging, and leisure names, the firm said industry fundamentals were “muted” in 2025, with the few stronger spots mostly coming from businesses catering to older and wealthier customers. Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley expects “more of the same fundamentally” in 2026, though it noted that interest-rate trends could push consumer spending more toward goods rather than services.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported on January 15 that Vail Resorts cut its earnings outlook for 2026 after the western U.S. experienced one of the weakest early snowfall periods in more than 30 years. The company said it now expects full-year earnings to come in below the low end of the guidance it issued in September, even if conditions in the Rocky Mountains improve and return to normal by President’s Day weekend in mid-February. CEO Rob Katz said the lack of snow “limited our ability to open terrain and negatively impacted visitation and ancillary spending for both local and destination guests during the period.”

Back in September, Vail had forecast fiscal 2026 EBITDA of $842 million to $898 million. But early-season trends have been soft. Through January 4, skier visits across Vail’s North American resorts, including properties in Colorado, Utah, and British Columbia, were down 20% compared to the same period last year. Lift revenue also dipped 1.8%, according to the company.

To reduce how much results swing with the weather, ski operators, including Vail, have increasingly leaned into a subscription-style model, encouraging customers to buy multi-region passes valid across different resorts.

Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) runs a large network of destination and local ski resorts. The company also owns and manages premium hotels under its RockResorts brand, along with vacation rentals, condos, and branded lodging properties located near its major mountain destinations.

While we acknowledge the potential of MTN as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MTN and that has a 100x upside potential, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: 13 Best Dividend Kings to Buy in 2026 and 14 Best Mid Cap Dividend Aristocrat Stocks to Buy Now

Disclosure: None.

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