We recently published a list of 15 Best Large-Cap Value Stocks to Buy as the Recession Hits. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) stands against other best large-cap value stocks to buy as the recession hits.
Goldman Sachs highlighted that equities around the world traded in and out of a bear market — which is often defined as a 20% decline from the recent peak. According to Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Research, the history of bear markets can provide some clues regarding the duration and severity of such downturns. U.S. stocks ended significantly higher after Trump announced his decision to put a 90-day pause on the additional country-specific portion of the reciprocal tariffs. That being said, Oppenheimer believes that a sustained rebound isn’t yet in place. As per the strategist, the valuations are required to adjust further before equities can shift into the “hope” phase of the next cycle.
What to Expect from Current Earnings Season?
With the Q1 2025 earnings season underway, Morningstar informs that investors can expect more focus than usual on what companies want to say regarding their outlooks, while the uncertainty surrounding tariffs means offering weaker, less confident, or even no guidance. Tariffs can impact the corporate bottom lines in several ways, both directly and indirectly. Notably, the increased import costs put more pressure on the margins. While some firms can decide to alleviate the pressure by increasing the prices for customers, others can choose to absorb them, says the firm. Morningstar, while quoting FactSet’s consensus estimates, mentioned that analysts expect 6.8% earnings growth in Q1 for companies in the S&P 500 benchmark index. For the full year, analysts anticipate an 11.2% growth.
READ ALSO: 7 Best Stocks to Buy For Long-Term and 8 Cheap Jim Cramer Stocks to Invest In.
Amidst Tensions, What’s the Silver Lining?
Forward guidance is what generally moves the financial markets. If the firm warns that there can be a possibility to see smaller profits, the stock tends to fall. This might happen across the market, but there is a silver lining. As per Morningstar chief research and investment officer Dan Kemp, it is important to note that most of the value lies in the future. Therefore, the impact on the company’s real value is expected to be muted. According to him, widening of the gap between stock prices and future real values can be a very fertile soil for the market investors.
Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research within portfolio strategy for Goldman Sachs Research, says that investors need to think about diversifying regionally and across styles. To be specific, this consists of low-volatility stocks, i.e., equities from more defensive sectors, that fluctuate less than the broader market.
Our Methodology
To list the 15 Best Large-Cap Value Stocks to Buy as the Recession Hits, we considered companies from the industries which are expected to be resilient in a recessionary environment, such as utilities, healthcare, and consumer. Next, we chose the stocks that trade at a forward P/E of less than ~20.0x. Finally, the stocks are arranged in ascending order of the hedge fund sentiments, as of Q4 2024.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
Solar panel workers installing a new farm for clean energy generation.
Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 120
Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. BofA remains optimistic about the company’s growth prospects as the firm’s analyst believes that the base business of baseload generation and competitive retail remains well-placed to benefit from tightening markets, increasing demand as well as retail growth, irrespective of the data center deals. Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) has been growing its fleet of zero-carbon resources, advancing the interests via cost-effective, strategic investments.
During Q4 2024, it advanced its efforts in solar, energy storage, and nuclear by executing the renewable development pipeline and by growing its ownership interest in nuclear by closing on an agreement to acquire the 15% minority interest in its Vistra Vision subsidiary. This makes Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) the sole owner of its highly valuable, carbon-free assets. Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST)’s transition towards renewable energy and the expansion into AI-driven data center services continue to fuel its growth prospects. This remains in line with the utilities sector’s focus on technological advancement and clean energy.
ClearBridge Investments, an investment management company, released its Q1 2025 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“Volatility also created entry points to motivate our first purchase in the utility sector, Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST), as well as reduce our underweight to the consumer discretionary sector with the addition of CAVA Group. Vistra is the largest competitive power generator in the U.S. with a 41 GW fleet of power plants diversified by geography and fuel sources. Long-term fundamentals of the deregulated power markets remain constructive with Vistra well positioned to benefit from continued tightening in its primary PJM (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland Interconnection) and ERCOT (Texas) markets. Pending regulatory clarity could also pave the way for additional power purchase agreements with hyperscalers and act as a positive catalyst for independent power producer stocks. These agreements, in combination with federal subsidies for nuclear plants, have the potential to improve visibility and lower earnings variability across the industry.”
Overall, VST ranks 2nd on our list of best large-cap value stocks to buy as the recession hits. While we acknowledge the potential of VST as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some deeply undervalued AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for a deeply undervalued AI stock that is more promising than VST but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires.
Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
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