We recently compiled a list of the Top 10 Health Insurance Stocks To Buy. In this article, we are going to take a look at where UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) stands against the other health insurance stocks.
The health insurance industry is constantly changing, driven by a movement towards consumer-driven healthcare, in which people actively control their own health and healthcare costs. In that sense, Fortune Business Insights projects that the global healthcare insurance market is estimated to be worth $2.14 trillion in 2024 and will grow from $2.32 trillion in 2025 to roughly $4.45 trillion by 2032, reflecting a 9.7% CAGR over the forecast period.
AI in Health Insurance
According to McKinsey, health insurers might benefit significantly from completely incorporating AI and automation into their business operations. The firm believes that for every $10 billion in revenue, insurers could save $150 million to $300 million in administrative costs and $380 million to $970 million in medical expenses. In addition, these technologies may create an additional $260 million to $1.24 billion in income.
That said, concerns regarding AI’s expanding role in health insurance, particularly around claim denials, have escalated in recent months, especially in light of the death of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. These concerns had previously pushed the Biden administration to establish optional operational agreements with insurers, payers, and providers in 2023. In 2024, an executive order was issued to create criteria and safeguards for AI implementation. However, in January of this year, the Trump administration revoked Biden’s AI mandate, proposing that a new action plan be developed by the middle of the year.
Commenting on the rising implementation of AI in health insurance, law firm Maynard Nexsen stated:
“The AI landscape continues to develop, and the regulations appear to be loosening — at least at the federal level. These changes have led to uncertainty among organizations using AI technology.”
Medicaid Concerns
Medicaid, the nation’s largest health insurance program, which covers more than 70 million people, could be slashed under House Republican proposals. Lawmakers are proposing cutbacks of up to $2.3 trillion over the next decade to help fund border security and extend President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. As the government works to decrease federal debt while maintaining expenditure commitments, Medicaid remains a key priority. To further expand on the implications of such a move, it should be noted that the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has considerably expanded the program’s scope and expense, making it the principal provider of comprehensive health and long-term care for one in every five Americans and accounting for approximately $1 out of every $5 spent on healthcare.
Furthermore, House Republicans just passed a budget by a slim margin, requiring the Energy and Commerce Committee, in charge of federal healthcare, to reduce $880 billion in expenditures. The reductions are designed to help support Trump’s tax cuts, mass deportations, and defense spending.
Our Methodology
For our list of the best health insurance stocks to buy, we started with a list of stocks pulled from ETFs, stock screeners, and web rankings. We then utilized Insider Monkey’s Q4 2024 database to discover the top ten stocks held by hedge funds. The list is organized in ascending order of hedge fund sentiment around each stock.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
A senior healthcare professional giving advice to a patient in a clinic.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 150
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) is a well-known US multinational firm that offers managed healthcare and insurance services. The company provides comprehensive health benefits to a wide spectrum of clients, including major corporations, small enterprises, and individuals.
Following developments in a long-running Department of Justice (DOJ) case, Deutsche Bank analysts maintained a Buy recommendation on UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) shares on March 5, with a $591 price objective. The healthcare behemoth is allegedly close to dismissing the case, which accuses it of overbilling Medicare by at least $2.1 billion.
Alongside its Q4 2024 results, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) reaffirmed its 2025 profit predictions, predicting solid full-year sales of $450 billion to $455 billion in 2025, or 12.4% to 13.7% increase. Despite recent setbacks, notably the industry’s issue with growing healthcare costs, the company retains an optimistic long-term perspective.
Bretton Fund stated the following regarding UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) in its Q4 2024 investor letter:
“We invest in UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) because we believe this revealed preference is real. The regulatory landscape changes constantly, there is plenty of noise in the system, and it is possible to imagine a world where health insurers would not be necessary. However, the massive healthcare system we’re in today structurally relies on private companies to play the crucial role of managing care and negotiating prices, and we don’t think the US government is prepared to take all that over. It was a bad year for our investment, as the stock returned a negative 2.4%, but it trades for a meaningful discount to the market despite consistently delivering double digit earnings growth for years, including 10% last year.
First, the elephant in the room. On December 4, Brian Thompson, who ran UnitedHealth’s insurance business, was assassinated in New York City. Shell casings had the words “deny” and “depose” written on them, a bullet was inscribed with “delay.” Five days later, Luigi Mangione was arrested in Pennsylvania with what appears to be the murder weapon and a manifesto criticizing the American healthcare system. Mangione has since become a cult celebrity.
Healthcare is not a normal market. Governments have decided that healthcare is worth intervening in to achieve noneconomic outcomes, most notably providing care for people who can’t afford it. Each country’s regulatory system designs its system and rations healthcare in its own way: the UK employs providers directly and attempts a central triage function to allocate care; continental European systems typically have private providers but some version of all-payer rate setting; and the US has a decentralized model where providers can charge whatever they want, but payers can choose not to pay it, plus government-run systems like Medicare and Medicaid that cover about 35% of Americans. Every system implements some type of brake on costs, usually a combination of the government and private companies, and the US system leans more on the private sector for this than others. Our system is not without its benefits. It is vastly more lucrative for providers like surgeons and medical device companies. It also allows for some measure of money signal; if you are a rich weekend warrior with an orthopedic issue, the American system will offer a dizzying array of cutting-edge specialists where the UK would suggest getting used to the feeling of aging and stiffening one’s upper lip. However, our system violates the social expectation of the word “insurance…” (Click here to read the full text)
Overall UNH ranks 1st on our list of the top health insurance stocks to buy. While we acknowledge the potential of UNH as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that certain AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than UNH but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.