We recently published a list of 12 Best Freight Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds. In this article, we are going to take a look at where United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) stands against other best freight stocks to buy according to hedge funds.
Freight stocks are often perceived as boring if compared to the flashy technology and AI stocks, but they are actually the blood of the global economy – the freight sector is the backbone of trade and the gross domestic product of every country. In essence, any good produced and sold was almost certain to have been involved in transportation, often several times at different stages of the supply chain. This means that freight companies are able to capture a small share of the giant gross domestic product, which makes the overall sector a huge size.
The key growth drivers of freight activity are trade volumes, fuel prices (cheap fuel is a huge profitability boost), public spending on large projects like infrastructure, and the level of manufacturing activity. Consequently, freight stocks thrive during periods of strong economic growth, supported by affordable energy prices and low interest rates, as well as a calm geopolitical landscape that ensures the free flow of goods. Conversely, the whole transportation sector tends to underperform during sluggish economic conditions, featuring mediocre construction and manufacturing activities, slowdowns in both public and private spending, and other macro headwinds like high interest rates and inflation, which pressure consumption on a large scale.
READ ALSO: 10 Best Transportation Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds
The year 2024 was not the best for freight activity in the US, as almost 2 years of high interest rates and past inflation finally took a toll on consumption, industrial activity, and construction. Last year, while strong from a valuation standpoint and stock market returns, it actually brought a significant slowdown in consumer spending, residential construction, automotive volumes, and industrial production. There were pockets of strength in data center construction, public construction (as fueled by the Infrastructure Act), and some industrial niches, but that was not enough to fuel growth for freight stocks. As a result, the whole sector underperformed the broad market and reached a new 5-year low (relative to the broad market) by year-end. Furthermore, the new US administration brought even more challenges into 2025 – the cut in public spending is likely to eliminate some of the pockets of strength mentioned above, while the tariff threats are a huge headwind for commerce and the flow of goods.
The Atlanta Fed and other reputable research boutiques have drastically cut their estimates of GDP growth for 2025, which puts transportation stocks out of favor again. However, according to the principles of value investing, the trough of the business cycle, when stocks are trading at or near their lows, is the best time to acquire good companies at exceptional prices. As legendary investors like Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch have taught us, valuations certainly do matter for long-term stock returns, meaning that periods of underperformance are opportunities to acquire stocks at bargain prices.
We also believe that the long-term picture remains favorable, and there are reasons to expect a reacceleration in GDP growth and freight volumes at some point in 2H 2025 or 2026, once the current challenges are navigated. The main reason for long-term optimism is that the outlook on the construction sector is favorable due to a chronically undersupplied residential housing market and the aging of infrastructure in the US. Second, industrial activity will also have to rebound at some point, and we believe that lower interest rates over time will unmute the “Roaring 2020s” tailwinds in such areas as electric vehicle production, energy grid, and automation – all of these will bring higher volumes for the freight sector. The key takeaway for readers is that we may be at an opportune time to acquire freight stocks at bargain prices ahead of a broad economic recovery over the next 1-2 years.
Our Methodology
We used a stock screener and thematic ETFs to shortlist 40-50 companies operating in the freight space, which includes the “Integrated Freight & Logistics” and “Trucking” industries. Then we compared the list with our proprietary database of hedge funds’ ownership and included in the article the top 12 stocks with the largest number of hedge funds owning the stock as of Q4 2024. All stocks are ranked in ascending order.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
A warehouse filled with boxes of parcels, symbolizing the companies reliable logistics services.
United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 59
United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) is a global powerhouse in package delivery and supply chain management – most of the products you encounter and use daily are probably handled by the company at some point. Operating one of the world’s largest air and ground networks, UPS covers more than 220 countries and territories. Its services are divided into US Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain & Freight, covering everything from day-definite deliveries to customs brokerage and logistics solutions.
United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) delivered strong Q4 results with revenue increasing 1.5% and operating profit growing 11.2%. The company announced significant strategic changes, including an agreement to reduce volume from their largest customer, Amazon, by more than 50% by 2H 2026 and the complete insourcing of SurePost delivery operations. UPS is also launching “Efficiency Reimagined” initiatives expected to drive approximately $1 billion in savings and plans to close up to 10% of buildings and reduce vehicle and aircraft fleets as part of network reconfiguration.
For 2025, United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) plans to focus on growing in higher-value segments. Healthcare is a hyper-promising growth direction for the company, as 2024 revenue reached $10.5 billion with plans to grow to $20 billion by 2026. The company maintained strong financial discipline, with $10.1 billion in cash from operations in 2024, and returned $5.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. UPS expects to expand the US Domestic operating margin in every quarter of 2025, targeting a 12% operating margin by the fourth quarter of 2026. With strong guidance ahead, UPS ranks 2nd on our list of best freight stocks to buy.
Overall, UPS ranks 2nd on our list of best best freight stocks to buy according to hedge funds. While we acknowledge the potential of UPS, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than UPS but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.