We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Tobacco and Cigarette Stocks to Buy Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) stands against the other Tobacco and Cigarette stocks.
Cigarette and tobacco stocks are companies that produce and sell cigars, snuff, chewing tobacco, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, and all other tobacco products.
The tobacco industry has long been a huge winner for investors. Tobacco companies were among the top performers during the 20th century because of their reputation for providing investors with substantial dividend yields as well as their addictive, extremely profitable, and recession-proof product. However, tobacco firms now confront a different set of challenges. Globally, smoking rates have been progressively declining, particularly in the United States, as a result of growing legislation and health concerns. The industry has attempted to shift to next-generation products as a result. Some people believe that e-cigarettes, vaporizers, and chewable nicotine pouches are healthier options since they avoid some of the negative aspects of smoking cigarettes, such as unpleasant odors. Some companies are expanding beyond tobacco, working with cannabis businesses to capitalize on the potential development in a market that shares numerous similarities with tobacco. There are other hazards associated with tobacco stocks, such as heightened regulation and a decline in smoking rates.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the number of tobacco farms in the United States decreased from 93,530 in 1997 to roughly 3,000 in 2022. Nonetheless, the USA was the world’s fifth-largest producer of tobacco in 2021, harvesting 431.6 million pounds in 2022, compared to 1.74 billion pounds in 1997. Seventy-seven percent of U.S. production came from North Carolina or Kentucky. Price reductions accounted for $5.7 billion (72%) of the $8.6 billion tobacco businesses spent on advertising in 2022, which included $572.7 million for smokeless tobacco and $8.01 billion for cigarettes. Marketing costs for e-cigarettes came to $859.4 million in 2021. Sales of cigarette packs fell from 12.5 billion to 9.1 billion packs between 2015 and 2021, a 27% decrease. In 2024, the average cigarette tax in each state was $1.93, while the federal tax was $1.01.
Despite the industry’s weak revenue and profit development, investors continue to be drawn to these stocks due to their consistent dividends, profitability, and solid profit margins. Investors believe that stronger growth will eventually be catalyzed by next-generation products.
However, on April 2, 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the FDA’s decision to deny approval for flavored e-cigarettes in a major decision. According to Justice Samuel Alito, vape producers were given “adequate notice” of the FDA’s review criteria. In this case, businesses like Vapetasia and Triton Distribution applied for certification for products such as “Mother’s Milk and Cookies” and “Killer Kustard Blueberry.”
The FDA has been regulating vaping products since 2016, claiming that flavored vapes represent a health concern and may encourage young people to use tobacco. More than 2.1 million youths in the US reported using e-cigarettes in 2023, with 10% of high school students vaping. The FDA has rejected thousands of flavored products and has only approved tobacco and menthol flavors. One specific issue, marketing plan consideration, was returned to lower courts after the Supreme Court reversed the 5th Circuit’s prior criticism of the FDA’s changing criteria. Companies that promote unapproved products risk “civil and criminal penalties,” the FDA warned.
A man exhaling smoke from a cigarette indicating the use of tobacco products.
Our Methodology
For this article, we sifted through the online rankings to form an initial list of the 15 Tobacco and Cigarette Stocks. We have also included e-cigarette and cannabis companies. From the resultant dataset, we chose 10 stocks with the highest number of hedge fund investors, using Insider Monkey’s database of 1009 hedge funds in Q4 2024 to gauge hedge fund sentiment for stocks. We have used the stock’s market cap as of April 25, 2025, as a tie-breaker in case two or more stocks have the same number of hedge funds invested.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 102
With sales of cigarettes in almost 170 countries, Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) is one of the biggest tobacco firms in the world. The company aims to replace its cigarette sales with lower-risk alternatives despite its supremacy. Although its target of two-thirds of sales by 2030 seems ambitious, as of 2024, almost 40% of revenue came from smoke-free items. By 2029, Morningstar analysts anticipate that this percentage will have increased to about 50%. This does not indicate that analysts expect PMI to underperform in reduced-risk, but rather the consistent and significant contributions from traditional smokeable items. The stock grew by more than 39% YTD, making it the Best Tobacco Stock.
The smoke-free products of Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) were sold in 95 markets as of December 31, 2024, and 38.6 million adults globally were estimated to be using them. The smoke-free division of the company generated 42% of its total net revenues in the first quarter of 2025. Despite the secular drop in smoking worldwide, combustibles expanded 4%, while smoke-free grew 20% organically. The investment management company, Andvari Associates, published its investor letter for the first quarter of 2025. The fund said as follows:
“Last year, Andvari made its first investments in tobacco companies with the purchase of Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) and Altria. At the time of our purchase, Philip Morris and Altria had underperformed the S&P 500 over the prior 5- and 10-year periods. Both traded at low valuations and with high dividend yields. But thanks to following the industry on and off for 10+ years, and thanks to many discussions with long-time shareholders of the companies, Andvari felt the time was right to make the plunge. The timing could not have been much better for us, as both companies have so far contributed positively to Andvari’s recent overall performance.
The problem—or the feature, depending on your perspective—with the tobacco industry has been a declining population of cigarette smokers in developed countries. Over the last four or five years, the decline in these smoking populations has accelerated, which in part explains the poor share performance of the tobacco companies between 2017 and 2023. Despite this, the tobacco companies have maintained, or slowly increased, their revenues and profits with regular price increases on cigarettes…” (Click here to read the full text)
Overall, PM ranks 1st on our list of the 10 Best Tobacco and Cigarette Stocks to Buy Now. While we acknowledge the potential of Tobacco and Cigarette companies, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than PM but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.