We recently compiled a list of the Top 15 Commodity Producers With the Highest Upside Potential. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) stands against the other Commodity Producer stocks.
Commodity producer stocks are shares of publicly listed firms that produce, explore, or distribute commodities. These businesses are frequently interested in metals, mining, agriculture, and energy. Commodity producer stocks are chosen by investors to obtain exposure to both the equity and commodities markets, potentially profiting from heightened interest in either.
The commodity market is booming. According to a research report, the size of the global commodity services market was projected at $3.56 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.65% from 2025 to 2034, from $3.87 billion in 2025 to roughly $8.16 billion by 2034. Regionally, the commodity services industry is dominated by North America, while Asia Pacific is projected to grow at a quick pace.
However, the World Bank’s April 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook projects that global commodity prices will plummet, falling 12% in 2025 and further 5% in 2026 to their lowest level since 2020. The anticipated drop is being driven by slowing global economic growth and persistently high oil supply. This decline carries risks to economic growth in developing countries, with two-thirds likely to see setbacks, even though it may reduce short-term price pressures associated with rising trade barriers. Notwithstanding the drop, nominal prices will still be higher than they were before the pandemic.
Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group, stated:
“Commodity prices have whipsawed throughout the 2020s—plummeting with arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic, then surging to record highs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and then sinking again,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. “In an era of geopolitical tensions, surging demand for critical minerals, and more frequent natural disasters, that could become the new normal. Successfully navigating through repeated commodity prices swings will require developing economies to build fiscal space, strengthen their institutions, and improve investment climates to facilitate job creation.”
On the other hand, Morgan Stanley, on February 21, highlighted that 2025 is anticipated to be a crucial year for commodity markets, influenced by supply fundamentals, inflation patterns, and dollar fluctuations. Inflation in the United States is still high, falling short of the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in December with headline CPI readings of 2.9% and core CPI readings of 3.2%. After the U.S. presidential election, policy changes—particularly related to immigration, deficits, and tariffs—have raised inflation expectations. According to data from the University of Michigan, they rose from 2.8% to 3.3% in just one month. Commodity prices have generally been supported by these conditions.
Since late September, the U.S. dollar has risen by almost 8%, in part because of growing interest rates and policy expectations. Global demand for commodities is usually pressured by a strong dollar, but if the currency stabilizes or depreciates, it may eliminate a significant obstacle. Although recent contango suggests sufficient short-term supply, a yield-adjusted perspective reveals markets in backwardation at about 4%, showing ongoing physical tightness. This suggests that inventories for essential commodities remain low, making the market more susceptible to demand shocks. Commodity performance in 2025 is supported by tight supply, high inflation, as well as potential dollar weakness.
A large open-pit copper mine with heavy machinery extracting minerals from the earth.
Our Methodology
To collect data for this article, we examined companies operating in the commodity sector and then compiled a list of the stocks with the highest upside potential according to Wall Street analysts, as of May 1, 2025. To keep our list relevant, we have only included companies with a market cap of $10 billion and above. The following are the Commodity Producers with the Highest Upside Potential.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX)
Analysts’ Upside Potential as of May 01: 33.21%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) has stakes in ten copper mines, with the largest holdings being 49% of the Indonesian copper and gold operations at Grasberg, 55% of the Cerro Verde mine in Peru, and 72% of Morenci in Arizona. By volume, it was one of the largest copper miners in the world in 2024, selling around 1.2 million metric tons of copper (its share). Furthermore, the firm sold 70 million pounds of molybdenum and roughly 900,000 ounces of gold, primarily from Grasberg. By the end of December 2024, its copper reserves spanned approximately 25 years. It is ranked eighth on our list of the Best Commodity Stocks.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) had solid operational momentum in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing sales projections for copper and forecasting average quarterly copper volumes to be roughly 20% higher for the rest of the year. In the next quarters, unit net cash costs are anticipated to decrease by an average of 30%, while gold sales are projected to be almost four times Q1 levels. A premium of roughly 13% over LME prices has been observed in the U.S. copper market, which reflects tariff expectations and generates an estimated $800 million in yearly revenue for its U.S. copper sales. Smelter repairs are moving more quickly than expected in Indonesia, where the recently opened Precious Metals refinery represents a significant turning point, and solid output is expected from the Grasberg mine.
The company announced that it has successfully converted 12 out of 33 trucks at its Baghdad plant to autonomous haulage; a full fleet conversion is anticipated soon to result in considerable efficiency gains. Furthermore, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) is steadily advancing its low-cost leach innovation projects in the United States, with plans to increase production to 800 million pounds of copper annually from its current goal of 300 million pounds by the end of 2025.
Overall, FCX ranks 8th on our list of the Top Commodity Producers With the Highest Upside Potential. While we acknowledge the potential of FCX as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than FCX but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.