We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best UK Stocks to Invest in Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Diageo plc (NYSE:DEO) stands against the other best UK stocks.
The OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) anticipates economic output in Britain to expand by 1.8% in 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027. In September 2024, KPMG reported that The Bank of England might take a more cautious approach when it comes to easing monetary policy as compared to the Fed and the ECB, with gradual cuts resulting in the UK base rate to 3.5% by 2025 end.
Furthermore, the labour market will continue to loosen, with fewer vacancies, and subdued pay growth but a relatively modest rise in the unemployment rate. KPMG went on to add that business investment might see some recovery next year if geopolitical uncertainties ease and the impact of reduced rates and the improving growth outlook offer businesses the confidence to commit to their investment plans.
What to expect from the UK Economy?
As per the new EY ITEM Club Autumn Forecast, the UK economy should grow 0.9% in 2024, down from the 1.1% growth expected in July’s Summer Forecast. The downgrade exhibits that household savings are now lower than expectations, providing less scope for consumers to increase their spending. Furthermore, lower-than-anticipated increases in consumer spending, together with cautious rate cuts to the Bank Rate, demonstrate that UK growth is expected to be steady rather than rapid over the upcoming 2 years.
EY added that business investment is expected to accelerate moderately in the coming years, with rate cuts providing a boost to the private sector. Therefore, the UK business investment should grow to 1.3% in 2024, an increase from the 1% expected earlier. Private sector investment is anticipated to accelerate to 3% in 2025, demonstrating a small downgrade from projections of 3.2% growth in its Summer Forecast.
Inflation Outlook for the UK Economy
EY expects that inflation is expected to average 2.6% in 2024 before falling marginally to 2.5% in 2025 and 2.1% in the following year. The firm believes that this ‘stickiness’ is because of several factors, such as tightness in the broader labour market, and the gradual slowing of pay growth. With spending growth anticipated to be lower than the earlier expectations because of reduced household saving rates, it projects consumer spending to rise by 0.8% in 2024.
EY expects that gradual cuts to the Bank Rate might provide some benefits to the UK’s housing market. It projects house price growth of 1.7% in 2024, and 2.1% in 2025, with declining borrowing costs anticipated to help offset other affordability challenges. Notably, the looser monetary policy is expected to have a modest impact on growth over the short term. Several borrowers on fixed rates will not experience the decline in their mortgage payments and a significant minority might refinance a fixed mortgage to a higher rate, despite a decline in Bank Rate.
Our Methodology
To list the 10 Best UK Stocks to Invest in Now, we used a screener to extract UK stocks. Next, we narrowed our list by selecting the ones having high hedge fund holdings. Finally, the stocks were ranked in an ascending order of their hedge fund sentiments, as of Q2 2024.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
An investor in a suit representing the company, seated in front of a long table of global leaders discussing the company’s investments.
Diageo plc (NYSE:DEO)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 31
Headquartered in London, the United Kingdom, Diageo plc (NYSE:DEO) is engaged in the production, marketing, and sale of alcoholic beverages.
Diageo plc (NYSE:DEO)’s competitive advantages stem from intangible assets, which create significant barriers to entry in some of its biggest categories. The cornerstone of the company’s evolving strategy revolves around pivoting away from its ‘affordable luxury’ narrative towards a more conventional staples business model. This transition is expected to lead to a more conservative but potentially more stable growth trajectory for Diageo plc (NYSE:DEO).
Its vast array of premium brands offers a solid foundation for strategic realignment, potentially providing a buffer against market volatility associated with luxury goods. Diageo plc (NYSE:DEO)’s ability to leverage its premium brand portfolio, such as Johnnie Walker, throughout various international markets places it well within the industry.
The transition towards a staples business model demonstrates that Diageo plc (NYSE:DEO) has been adapting to broader industry trends, favoring stability and consistent performance over the potential volatility of luxury markets. The transition is also expected to result in more consistent revenue streams and smoother earnings growth over time. Through leveraging the strong brand portfolio and global distribution network, Diageo plc (NYSE:DEO) can find opportunities to roll out more accessible product lines or bring innovation to the “everyday luxury” segment.
As per Wall Street, the shares of Diageo plc (NYSE:DEO) have an average price target of $147.00. Aristotle Capital Management, LLC, an investment management company, released its third-quarter 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“Headquartered in London, England, Diageo plc (NYSE:DEO) is a global leader in the alcoholic beverages industry. The company has a vast portfolio of over 200 well-recognized premium spirits (~80% of FY 2024 sales), beers (~15% and mostly Guinness) and other beverages (~5%) that are sold in nearly 180 countries. Led by its Johnnie Walker brand, Diageo is the world’s largest exporter of Scotch whiskey—its largest category at ~25% of sales—followed by other spirits such as tequila and vodka (~10% each). Diageo also owns a ~34% stake in the premium champagne and cognac maker Moët Hennessy (a subsidiary of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton).
The company is the product of the 1997 merger between Grand Metropolitan and Guinness and the subsequent divestiture of its food-related businesses. M&A continues to be a part of Diageo’s strategy, as regional brands often dominate local markets (which provides further opportunities for mergers and industry consolidation). Over the last decade, Diageo has also meaningfully increased its presence in the rapidly growing tequila market with the acquisitions of Don Julio and Casamigos…” (Click here to read the full text)
Overall, DEO ranks 7th on our list of the 10 Best UK Stocks to Invest in Now. While we acknowledge the potential of DEO as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some deeply undervalued AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for a deeply undervalued AI stock that is more promising than DEO but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.