We recently compiled a list of the Best TSX Stocks To Invest In Now. In this article, we will look at where Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ) ranks among the best TSX stocks to invest in now.

Canada’s Economy Shows Signs of Stabilization

According to Deloitte, the Canadian economy is showing signs of stabilisation after three years of turmoil, with inflation steadily declining since June 2022. Canada’s economy grew stronger in the first half of 2024 than previously forecast, but the pace of recovery is expected to be limited in the second half of the year due to slower household spending. The updated forecast projects real GDP growth of 1.2% for 2024, followed by 2.6% growth in 2025, with real GDP per person falling by 1.6% in 2024 before clawing back to gain 1.1% growth in 2025.

The Bank of Canada has begun to ease its monetary policy, paving the way for stronger economic growth. However, the pace of monetary easing is uncertain, and weak investment and productivity performance continue to pose a risk to Canada’s long-term economic outlook. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates at a gradual pace, with a rate cut in September followed by another in December and March. The overnight rate is expected to settle at a neutral level of 2.75% by the end of next year, assuming inflation continues to decrease and returns to the 2% target by the second quarter of next year.

Business sentiment in Canada is beginning to recover, with improved confidence across regions and sectors. However, business investment has been weak, directly impacting productivity and living standards. Since the 2014 commodity price crash, labour productivity in Canada has remained flat, while unit labour costs have increased by over 30%.

The economy’s current challenge is generating enough jobs to keep up with Canada’s rapidly growing population. Despite a strong pace of growth, employment has not kept up with population growth over the past 12 months, resulting in a rise in the unemployment rate. Wage growth slowed dramatically in the first quarter of 2024, and slower wage growth is expected to be the norm this year and next.

Canadian households are the most indebted in the G7, and the increases in interest rates since 2022 have hit their pocketbooks. Real consumer spending per person has fallen in five of the last six quarters, and the effect on home-building has been even more dramatic. However, consumer spending and residential investment are expected to increase as interest rate decreases work to restore demand.

Economist Predicts Stronger Economic Growth for Canada

James Orlando, a senior economist at TD Bank, is optimistic about Canada’s economic growth prospects, particularly in light of the recent interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. According to Orlando, Canada’s economic growth has consistently lagged behind the United States, but a change in interest rate policy could help close the gap. The Bank of Canada’s decision to cut interest rates is expected to lead to lower mortgage rates and increased consumer spending. This, in turn, could boost economic growth and help Canada catch up with the United States.

Orlando notes that the Canadian economy is highly sensitive to interest rates, particularly in the housing market. With high levels of debt and a reliance on variable-rate mortgages, Canadians are more likely to feel the pinch of higher interest rates. However, with the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts, Orlando expects to see increased investment in the housing market and potentially improved affordability. While affordability is still a concern, Orlando believes that the rate cuts will help to stimulate economic growth and create jobs.

Orlando also notes that the Canadian economy is expected to benefit from increased investment in areas such as the green transition and the production of electric vehicles. With a growing population and a need for more housing, Orlando expects to see increased investment in the housing market and other areas of the economy. While there are still challenges ahead, Orlando believes that the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts and the resulting economic stimulus will help to drive growth and create jobs in the Canadian economy.

While Canada’s economy is showing signs of stabilisation, the economy still faces significant challenges, including weak investment and productivity performance, a rapidly growing population, and high household debt levels. However, with the Bank of Canada easing its monetary policy and interest rates expected to decrease, consumer spending and residential investment are expected to increase, paving the way for stronger economic growth in the long term. With that in context, let’s take a look at the 8 best TSX stocks to invest in now.

Our Methodology

For this article, we used Finviz and Yahoo Finance stock screeners plus online rankings to compile an initial list of the 40 largest companies in Canada by market cap. From that list, we narrowed our choice down to the 8 stocks that were the most widely held by hedge funds, as of Q2 of 2024. The list is sorted in ascending order of the number of hedge fund investors in each stock.

Why do we care about what hedge funds do? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).

Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ)  

Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 46  

Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ) is a leading independent oil and gas producer in Canada, with a diverse portfolio of assets in Western Canada, the United Kingdom, the North Sea, offshore Africa, and other international locations.

Despite steady production levels of around 1.3 million barrels per day over the past couple of years, the company is well-positioned to capitalise on improving market conditions, particularly in the natural gas sector. As natural gas prices continue to rise, Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ) is expected to increase production, driving revenue and gross profit growth. The company’s unit economics, as measured by netback analysis, have already shown a significant improvement, increasing from $20.64/bbl to $28.68/bbl in Q2 compared to the same quarter in the previous year. This trend is expected to continue, with netbacks potentially reaching $30-35/bbl, driven by operational improvements and higher natural gas prices.

The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) short-term energy outlook forecast suggests that natural gas prices will increase over the next year, driven by increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ) is well-positioned to benefit from this trend, having intentionally held back on natural gas production, with approximately 20% of its remaining 2024 planned natural gas wells drilled but production curtailed.

With a strong portfolio of assets and a proven track record of operational efficiency, Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ) is poised to capitalise on the expected price increase and drive long-term growth and profitability.

In the second quarter, Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ) stock was held by 46 hedge funds with stakes worth $3.77 billion. Fisher Asset Management is the largest shareholder in the company with a stake worth $1.49 billion as of June 30. Industry analysts have a consensus on the stock’s Buy rating, setting an average share price target at $11, which represents a 48% upside potential from its current level.

Overall CNQ ranks 5th on our list of the best TSX stocks to invest in now. While we acknowledge the potential of CNQ as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CNQ but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure. None. This article is originally published on Insider Monkey.