We recently compiled a list of 10 Best Stocks To Buy Right Now According To Billionaire Cliff Asness. In this article, we will look at where Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) ranks among the 10 best stocks to buy right now according to billionaire Cliff Asness.
The investment approach of Cliff Asness, through his multi-billion dollar hedge fund AQR Capital Management, is quite unique. While some investors such as Warren Buffett and Seth Klarman focus on value, and others like Ken Fisher focus on growth, Asness’ fund tries to quantitatively define what quality is.
While it sounds like a tall order, the hedge fund investor whose latest net worth is estimated to be $2 billion, has written quite a bit on the determinants of a quality stock. One such work came in the form of a research paper published in 2013. In it, Asness and his co authors shared three primary drivers of a quality stock. These are a stock’s profitability, growth, and safety. Within these three factors, profitability is driven by gross profits over assets, return on equity, return on assets, cash flow over assets, gross margin, and the portion of earnings that was cash. A quality stock’s growth is determined by the five year average growth in the per share values of the first five profitability factors, while a stock’s safety is based on its beta, leverage, bankruptcy risk, and return on equity volatility.
Using these metrics, Asness built two portfolios. The first portfolio selected stocks based on the quality metrics, while the latter, called Quality Minus Junk (QMJ) goes long on the quality stocks and shorts the junk stocks. QMJ is more characteristic of AQR Capital’s investment approach. The results showed that without adjusting for risk, the ten sub quality portfolios starting from a quality score of one and ending at ten all had positive excess returns over Treasury bills.
These returns ranged from 28 basis points of excess returns for the lowest quality portfolio to 70 basis points for the highest quality portfolio. The difference in the highest and lowest returns for these portfolios was the sharpest when they were tuned for the Carhart Four Factor Model that adds momentum to the traditional three factor Fama Factor model. The difference was 105 basis points per month for the four factor adjustment.
Looking at the returns for the QMJ portfolio, these jump to 60 basis points for the four factor model for US stocks and 61 basis points per month for the three and four factor models for global equities. When the US and global monthly excess returns are plotted over time for cumulative alpha, they sit at roughly 425% for the US between 1957 and 2016 and at 200% for global stocks between 1986 and 2012.
Shifting gears, as 2023 proved to be beneficial to the stock market because of returns driven by large cap stocks and artificial intelligence, AQR Capital also posted strong results. As per Reuters, the fund’s Absolute Return Strategy delivered 18.5% in returns in 2023, while the AQR Equity Market Neutral Global Value strategy returned a stronger 20.6% in net returns. Before fees, the Absolute Return’s returns were 55%, with the net, or post fee returns sitting at 43.5% in 2022 according to Bloomberg,
AQR’s double digit performance continued during the first quarter. More data sourced by Bloomberg shows that AQR’s Managed Futures Full Volatility Strategy, Delphi Long Short Equity Strategy, and Apex Strategy gained 17.4%, 13%, and 11%, during Q1 2024. Insider Monkey’s data shows that the cumulative value of the hedge fund’s stock holdings filed with the SEC was $58.7 billion by the end of that time period marking a $13.1 billion or 28.7% annual jump. Double digit returns in a quarter are no small matter, and some of the best known hedge funds such as Citadel Wellington, Point72, and Millennium 5.8%, 5.3%, and 3.7% in respective returns during the same time period.
Before we get to our list of Cliff Asness’ top stock picks, it’s also important to see how his firms’ funds have performed so far during the year. September has marked the start of a paradigm shift on Wall Street in the form of the Federal Reserve starting its interest rate cuts in the form of a 50 basis point cut. However, the Fed’s data seems to have disappointed investors as it indicates that as of mid September, it expects the rate to sit at 3.25% – 3.50% by 2025 end.
When looking at the returns of AQR’s different funds year to date, it appears that momentum is one of the top plays as of now. This is because the AQR Large Cap Momentum Style Fund has delivered 21.70% in year to date returns which is roughly three percentage points higher than the benchmark index’s 18.64% in returns. On the flip side, the AQR Large Cap Defensive Style Fund has delivered 16.11% in year to date returns which are 2.53 percentage points lower than the benchmark’s returns. Judging by this, the momentum fund which touts to invest in stocks “considered to have positive momentum if it has performed well in the prior 12 months relative to other stocks in the investment universe” has been the way to go so far in 2024.
Our Methodology
To make our list of the ten best stocks to buy according to Cliff Asness, we ranked all the stocks part of his fund AQR Capital’s Q2 2024 13F SEC filings and picked out the most valuable stakes.
For these stocks, we also mentioned the number of hedge fund investors based on Insider Monkey’s research. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 184
AQR Funds’ Latest Investment Stake: $1.73 billion
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) dominates the global consumer electronics industry courtesy of the iPhone. SEC filings show that 52% of the firm’s revenue comes from smartphones. Consequently, the iPhone is the central pillar on which Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s hypothesis rests as it allows the firm to have a user base of roughly 1.46 billion users. This user base is used by investors to gauge the firm’s future revenue by estimating when these users will upgrade their devices. The iPhone’s strength has also enabled Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) to create a $78 billion Services business by providing software service and taking payments from Google to make Google Search the default platform on its devices. Consequently, investors are also evaluating Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) for its ability to monetize consumer AI services through Apple Intelligence. Furthermore, any iPhone upgrade weakness or government action that stops Google’s payments could spell trouble for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s stock.
Baron Funds mentioned Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the firm said:
“Recent Activity This quarter we re-initiated a position in Apple Inc., a leading technology company known for its innovative consumer electronics products like the iPhone, MacBook, iPad, and Apple Watch. Apple is a leader across its categories and geographies, with a growing installed base that now exceeds 2 billion devices globally. The company’s attached services – including the App Store, iCloud, Apple TV+, Apple Music, and Apple Pay – provide a higher margin, recurring revenue stream that both enhances the value proposition for its hardware products and improves the financial profile. Apple now has well over 1 billion subscribers paying for these services, more than double the number it had just 4 years ago. The increasing services mix has led to healthy operating margin improvement, providing more free cash flow for Apple to reinvest in the business and to distribute to shareholders. Throughout its 48-year history, Apple has successfully navigated and capitalized on major technological shis, from PCs to mobile to cloud computing. We believe the company’s leading brand and device ecosystem position it to do equally well in the AI age, and this was the driver of our decision to re-invest. “Apple Intelligence” – the AI strategy unveiled at Apple’s recent Worldwide Developer Conference – leverages on- device AI and integrations with tools like ChatGPT to enhance user experiences across its ecosystem. The AI suite enables users to create new images, summarize and generate text, and use Siri to perform actions across their mobile applications, all while maintaining user privacy and security. We think Apple Intelligence can drive accelerated product upgrade cycles and higher demand for Apple services. The combination of growth re-acceleration, increasing services contribution, and thoughtful capital allocation should continue driving long-term shareholder value.”
Overall AAPL ranks 2nd on our list of the best stocks to buy according to Cliff Asness. While we acknowledge the potential of AAPL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AAPL but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published on Insider Monkey.