We recently published a list of 15 Best Stocks to Buy According to Hosking Partners. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) stands against the other best stocks to buy according to Hosking Partners.
Hosking Partners was established in 2013 by Jeremy Hosking as an independent partnership that offers a single global equity strategy. The firm appeals to investors seeking long-term returns and innovative thinking employing a capital cycle approach to investing. It has a diverse set of stocks in its portfolio that belong to a variety of industries consisting of AI, shipping, and financial services, among others. Jeremy Hosking earned an MA from the University of Cambridge, after which he served Marathon Asset Management 26 years as a founding partner and lead portfolio manager. There he contributed to developing the capital cycle approach to investment.
In its recent blog about shipping, Hosking Partners believes that understanding the cycles in different classes of shipping and global trends is essential for successful investment in the industry. Currently, Shipping (covering the container, dry bulk, product tanker and LNG sub-sectors) represents 1.25% of the portfolio. Global trade has declined as a percentage of GDP since 2010 caused by deglobalization, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical instability from the Russia-Ukraine war. This trend, coupled with the energy transition, is expected to constrain future supply and increase commodity price volatility, benefiting shipping by enabling cross-border trade.
Furthermore, shipping is a significant emitter of CO2, accounting for about 3% of global emissions. Environmental regulations aim to reduce emissions, but uncertainty over future fuel technology deters investment in new ships, leading to a tighter supply. The industry’s efficiency, measured by emissions per tonne-km, remains high compared to other transport modes. The shipping industry is at a pivotal juncture, with significant transformations driven by AI, the energy transition, and ESG considerations.
Another industry that Hosking Partners talks about is copper mining. Copper is often seen as a barometer for economic health and is crucial for the energy transition, including electric vehicles, power grids, and wind turbines. Wall Street banks are optimistic about copper prices, forecasting significant gains. Citi analysts suggest that prices could surge to over $15,000 per ton in the next 2-3 years if a strong economic recovery occurs, while their base case projects a rise to $12,000 per ton with modest demand growth through 2025 and 2026. Bank of America has also increased its 2024 copper price target to $9,321 from $8,625, citing tight mine supply and high demand driven by the energy transition as key factors.
However, some experts are cautious. Colin Hamilton of BMO Capital Markets argues that commodity markets tend to self-correct, and if supply issues persist, demand may adjust, potentially leading to lower prices. Hamilton suggests that while high price targets might be temporarily achievable, adjustments in demand could follow. The market may see a modest surplus due to increased mined supply, which is projected to grow by 4-4.5%. This is largely driven by new greenfield and brownfield projects. Despite the near-term surplus, long-term scarcity is anticipated as regulatory and political challenges in South America could impede the development of new mines.
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A user’s hands typing a search query into a Google Search box, emphasizing the company’s search capabilities.
Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL)
Hosking Partners’ Stake Value: $116,400,350
Percentage of Hosking Partners’ 13F Portfolio: 4.3%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 216
The parent company of Google, Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL), provides a variety of platforms and services through its Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. Known globally for products like Google Search, YouTube, and Gmail, Alphabet’s success is largely due to its dominance in the search engine market and lucrative deals with companies like Apple, making Google Search the default on many devices. Additionally, Alphabet is a significant player in the AI software industry, competing with major entities like Microsoft-backed OpenAI.
Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) experienced significant growth in Q2 2024, with a 15% year-over-year revenue increase and a 31% rise in diluted EPS. The Google Cloud Platform (GCP) grew nearly 29% YoY, strengthening its position in the cloud market. The company’s first dividend and share buyback program further enhance its attractiveness. Despite a recent 14% drop in its stock price, it is valued at 20-25x FY2024 earnings, indicating a potential buying opportunity. Analysts have set a price target of $203.74, projecting a 25.03% upside as of August 16. Although regulatory challenges and AI competition pose risks, Alphabet’s strong data capabilities and innovation provide resilience.
Patient Capital Opportunity Equity Strategy stated the following regarding Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) was a top contributor in the second quarter, finally catching up to its peers in the Magnificent 7. The company gained 20.8% in the period following strong first quarter earnings, a new $70B repurchase program (3% of shares outstanding) and the initiation of a cash dividend ($0.20 per share; 0.42% yield). We continue to believe the market underappreciates Google’s exposure to AI with its Gemini model being integrated into search results, YouTube advertising and its cloud offering. We continue to think that the cloud players will be the AI winners in the long-term, with Google being well positioned to take advantage. While the company trades at 24x 2024 earnings, if you remove the money-losing and under-earning businesses, you realize that you are paying below a market multiple for the core Google business. We do not believe there are many other AI winners trading at such an attractive multiple.”
Overall GOOGL ranks 1st on our list of the best stocks to buy according to Hosking Partners. While we acknowledge the potential of GOOGL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than GOOGL but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
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