In this article, we will discuss Harvard University Stock Portfolio 2026: Top 5 Picks. Please visit the Harvard University Stock Portfolio 2026: Top 10 Picks, if you would like to see the extended list and the methodology behind it.
5. Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG)
Harvard’s Stake: $147,058,057
Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG) is down roughly 21% so far this year amid fears over weakening travel demand, macro uncertainty, and the ongoing Middle East conflict. But some analysts believe the selloff represents a golden opportunity to accumulate shares at a significant discount to intrinsic value. Despite the headwinds, Q1 revenue jumped 16.2% year over year — or roughly 10% in constant currency — with the Iran conflict estimated to have caused a 2 percentage point hit on room nights and a slightly smaller impact on revenue. For the full year, management expects high single-digit revenue growth and low mid-teens adjusted EPS growth, with gross bookings projected to grow in the high single digits to low double digits.
Looking into Q2, the conflict headwind is expected to intensify to roughly 3 percentage points on room night growth, bringing guidance down to just 2%–4% — a number that would be closer to 5%–7% in a normalized environment. Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG) has also flagged that major upcoming US events, including the FIFA World Cup and America’s 250th anniversary celebration, risk delivering underwhelming results due to currently weak bookings.
Longer term, bulls point to several compelling drivers. Booking Holdings’ (NASDAQ:BKNG) Agoda platform is well-positioned to capture high-growth Southeast Asian travel markets, one of the fastest-recovering and fastest-growing regions globally. On AI, the narrative is more tailwind than headwind — rather than disrupting Booking’s business, AI is being used to accelerate innovation and advance Booking Holdings’ (NASDAQ:BKNG) Connected Trip ecosystem.
Despite concerns that the Iran conflict could weigh on travel demand, recent data suggest consumers remain committed to their vacation plans. United Airlines said it expects to carry about 53 million passengers this summer, roughly 3 million more than last year, driven by strong demand for trips tied to major events such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the August solar eclipse in Europe and major concert tours. The airline’s outlook adds to signs that leisure travel demand remains resilient even as higher fuel prices and geopolitical uncertainty push travel costs higher.
Wedgewood Partners stated the following regarding Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) in its Q1 2026 investor letter:
“Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) detracted from overall performance during the quarter. Earnings per share grew +17%, with revenues up +16%, as travel demand remained strong late into 2025 and into early 2026. Most of the stock’s weakness stemmed from investors labeling it an “AI loser” and, later in the quarter, the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Consumer AI, as a disruptive force in existing commerce, is proving to be much more difficult than markets expect. We view these AI tools and distribution channels as incremental rather than as drivers of the “zero-sum” dynamics that markets have been craving. As for the Middle East, for now, it represents a short-term disruption to travelers, particularly air travelers, given credible risks to international airline fuel supplies. However, we expect this will not be a multi-year headwind – more like a few quarters.”
Hedge Fund Resource Center