On August 13, Figure Technology Solutions (NASDAQ:FIGR) reported second quarter 2026 results that leaned hard into the story it has been telling investors since its IPO. Consumer loan marketplace volume reached $4.3 billion, up 132% from a year earlier and 4% ahead of the top end of guidance, marking a third straight quarter of triple digit growth. The message from management was simple: the shift of mortgage lending onto Figure’s tokenized marketplace is accelerating, not slowing down.
Bull Case: A Flywheel Spinning Faster
Revenue and profitability grew alongside volume rather than behind it. Adjusted net revenue climbed 95% year over year to $218 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 126% to $119 million, pushing the margin to 55% from 47% a year earlier. Net income jumped to $87 million from $30 million. Figure Connect, the company’s capital-light marketplace that lets loans trade directly between originators and buyers on chain, drove much of that lift. Connect volume climbed to 65% of total marketplace volume, up from 42% a year ago, and management now expects that share to approach 70% in the medium term, higher than the 60% target it had set previously. Partner count grew to 489, up from 387 last quarter, and at least one newly onboarded partner has already become the company’s largest or second-largest.
That growth has not come by loosening lending standards. Average FICO scores at origination have risen from 737 in 2020 to 756 so far this year, while combined loan-to-value ratios have fallen to 62.1%. Spreads on Figure’s HELOC securitizations have tightened from around 255 basis points in 2023 to roughly 135 basis points across 22 priced deals, and the buyer base for those deals has grown to more than 100 unique investors from just a handful a few years ago. The pending acquisition of Kiavi, a residential transition loan lender, is expected to add 40% to volume and $100 million of EBITDA with a payback period under four years, giving Figure a new asset class to run through the same marketplace playbook.
Bear Case: The Take Rate Squeeze
Not every metric moved in Figure’s favor. Net take rate, the cut Figure earns on marketplace volume, fell to 3.6%, the low end of its 3.5% to 4% guided range, and management expects it to stay there in the third quarter. Three forces are pushing it down at once. Figure Connect itself carries the lowest take rate of the company’s three channels, and the partners moving fastest onto it are large ones skipping the higher take rate Figure branded channel entirely. Rising interest rates during the quarter also hurt gain on sale economics, and first lien loan volume, which carries lower take rates than home equity lines, tripled year over year.
Some of the quarter’s strength also came from sources unlikely to repeat. A $5.9 million gain from selling a minority stake and a $4.4 million tax benefit tied to stock option exercises both flowed into results that otherwise looked clean. Figure also deliberately held about $360 million of loans on its balance sheet longer than usual to seed its Democratized Prime marketplace, a decision management said trimmed adjusted EBITDA margin by roughly 1.7 percentage points. And to help fund the Kiavi purchase, Figure closed a $600 million senior notes offering on July 14, 2026, at an 8.5% interest rate, adding new debt to the balance sheet while the acquisition’s regulatory approvals are still working through the process.
Funds Are Buying In
Hedge fund ownership of Figure rose from 40 funds to 51 in the most recent quarter. That is a meaningful jump in institutional interest, not a rounding error. Short interest sits at 7.51% of the float, a level that points to a real but not overwhelming bear camp. It suggests skepticism exists, but not the kind of crowded short position that can spark a rapid squeeze.
A Question Still Open
Figure’s second quarter leaves two threads that have not yet been resolved. Volume, partner growth and margin expansion are all moving in the same direction, and the pending Kiavi deal gives the company a new market to apply its marketplace model to. But the take rate keeps sliding as the business mixes toward its lowest margin channel, and some of this quarter’s profitability came from items that will not repeat. For the growth story to keep winning over skeptics, take rate stabilization and a clean Kiavi close will need to show up in the numbers Figure reports next.
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