We recently compiled a list of the 9 Best Dow Stocks to Buy According to Analysts. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW) stands against the other Dow stocks.
Since its introduction in 1896, the Dow Jones has undergone significant changes but remains a popular benchmark for measuring the economy and the overall stock market outlook. While the Index has gained 13% year to date, it has lagged the S&P 500, up by 21% over the same period.
The significant underperformance is because the Dow is mostly made up of blue-chip American companies, most of which have come under pressure amid deteriorating macroeconomics. While the Index is mostly made up of financial services companies at 23%, followed by technology at 20%, it has felt the full brunt of deteriorating economic conditions.
READ ALSO: 8 Worst Performing Tech Stocks in 2024 and 10 Worst Performing Blue Chip Stocks in 2024.
The U.S. economy is reeling from the effects of high interest rates, resulting in a slowdown in the labour market, and the manufacturing sector has significantly affected the Dow holdings. Additionally, the soaring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have rattled investors’ sentiments, resulting in most of them shunning equities in favor of safe havens like bonds and treasuries.
The uncertainty around the upcoming U.S. presidential election has only exacerbated the situation, with investors shunning stocks that would be affected mainly by a change of policies once there is a leadership change at the White House. According to analysts at Bank of America, who ends up in the White House and Congress could have a significant impact on critical corners of the stock market.
“Profits accelerating are far more important than who is sitting in the Oval Office. But politics can make or break sub-sectors,” the firm wrote in a research note to investors.
Amid the headwinds, the overall equity market has been trading higher, with major indices led by the Dow and the S&P 500 rallying to record highs. The strong gains have come on most companies delivering solid financial results and shrugging off the effects of high interest rates. Nevertheless the rallies have resulted in overstretched valuations, raising serious concerns for the investment community.
“The market had moved into overbought territory, making it vulnerable to anything it perceives as negative … It’s now worried that the Fed has not declared victory on inflation, and not to mention, the concerns post-election,” said LPL Financial chief global strategist Quincy Krosby.
A resilient U.S. economy that has steered clear of recession has helped support most stocks in the Dow, helping fuel the upward momentum. The International Monetary Fund thinks growth in the U.S. will remain robust. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF increased its estimate for U.S. GDP in 2024 to 2.8% from its 2.6% forecast in July while raising its 2025 growth forecast for the country. It’s the only advanced economy with its economic trajectory revised upwards for both years by the IMF. Nevertheless, it has warned of slowdowns in emerging markets.
“Projected slowdowns in the largest emerging market and developing economies imply a longer path to close the income gaps between poor and rich countries. Having growth stuck in low gear could also further exacerbate income inequality within economies,” the IMF warned.
With the U.S. economy expected to remain resilient as the Federal Reserve pushes forth with interest rate cuts, Dow stocks that have underperformed are well poised to bounce back. A lower interest rate environment on the back of improved economic conditions heading into year-end would make the case for the best Dow stocks to buy, according to analysts.
Our Methodology
To compile our list of the best Dow stocks to buy according to analysts, we started by analyzing the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We screened these stocks based on average price targets, focusing on stocks with significant upside potential. Finally, we ranked these companies in ascending order based on their price target upside as of October 23. We have also mentioned the hedge fund sentiment around each stock.
At Insider Monkey, we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A technician operating state of the art machines manufacturing specialized packaging materials.
Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW)
Average Upside Potential as of October 23: 10.16%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 32
Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW) is a basic materials company that provides materials sciences solutions for packaging consumer, mobility and infrastructure applications. It is one of the best Dow Jones stocks to buy, according to analysts, owing to its impressive track record of innovation, inclusivity, and sustainability, which have been key to its achieving profitable growth.
While the company has been under pressure, going down by about 7.84% year to date compared to a 12.35% gain for the Dow index, it is a solid long-term play as it trades at a discount. The underperformance comes from Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW), which is facing headwinds from demand softness in Europe and Asia. Lower consumer spending and inflationary pressure have also presented significant challenges.
Amid the overall weakness in the basic materials sector, Dow has consistently paid dividends affirming its financial health. It has already announced a quarterly dividend of 70 cents a share, continuing its long-standing tradition. While trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 13, Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW) yields 5.36%, which is ideal for generating passive income.
The company’s prospects to generate additional free cash flow to continue paying dividends have further been affirmed by the U.S. Energy Department announcing plans to invest $3 billion in the battery manufacturing sector. As the U.S. moves to reduce its dependence on China for battery reduction, Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW) should be one of the beneficiaries. Analysts on Wall Street rate the stock as a Hold with an average price target of $57.36, implying 10.16% upside potential.
ClearBridge Investments, an investment management company, released its second quarter 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“Our industrials holdings weighed on relative performance as we are more exposed to transports such as “less than truckload” provider XPO and parcel delivery company United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS), which are struggling with weak volumes during the post-COVID freight recession. With industry volumes down to pre-COVID levels and strong pricing power in the LTL space in particular, we believe that the next upcycle will prove to be very strong for earnings. As a result, we added to XPO in the quarter while reducing our position in UPS on concerns that industry capacity remains excessive. Meanwhile, we have less exposure to electrical equipment stocks, which have been rewarded by views that they will benefit from the buildout of AI data centers.”
Overall DOW ranks 9th on our list of the best Dow stocks to buy according to analysts. While we acknowledge the potential of DOW as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some deeply undervalued AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for a deeply undervalued AI stock that is more promising than DOW but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.