We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Travel and Leisure Stocks to Buy Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Airbnb, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) stands against the other travel and leisure stocks.
Prior to COVID-19 pandemic, travel and tourism sector was one of the most important sectors in the world economy. The sector made up ~10% of global GDP and was responsible for 320 million jobs worldwide, as reported by the IMF. After first case was identified in Wuhan, China, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic outbreak. Due to lockdowns and ban on international travel, global hospitality and tourism sector saw significant losses.
Recovery Phase of The Industry
As per first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of the year, international tourism closed 2023 at ~88% of pre-pandemic levels, with estimated ~1.3 billion international arrivals. UNWTO World Tourism Barometer gives a brief overview of the sector’s performance in 2023, assessing recovery by global region, sub-region and destination. The Middle East led this recovery in relative terms. It was the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels as the region saw arrivals 22% above 2019. Europe touched 94% of 2019 levels, aided by intra-regional demand along with travel from the US.
Experts believe that stage is all set for resilience and rapid recovery of travel and tourism sector, with pre-pandemic numbers anticipated by 2024 end. Rebound is having a solid impact on several economies, jobs, growth and opportunities for communities.
Despite a range of economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, the travel & tourism sector continues to thrive. International tourism flows bounced back at a strong pace and should fully recover by 2024 end. That being said, recovery remained uneven, and challenges still remain.
After declining ~68.3% in 2020 – which was marginally below the drop of ~72.3% globally – by 2022-end, international tourist arrivals to OECD countries recovered to ~77.3% of 2019 levels. This was ahead of ~66.6% globally. OECD countries made up ~65% of international tourism arrivals in 2022, exhibiting a rise from ~56% in 2019. This highlighted stronger performance as compared to non-OECD countries since the COVID-19 pandemic.
2023 built the momentum, and evidenced that there is still an unwavering passion for travel. This paves the way for a strong year in 2024.
Future Prospects of Travel and Tourism Industry
The World Travel & Tourism Council expects record-breaking year for travel & tourism sector in 2024. Data suggests that the sector’s global economic contribution is expected to touch all-time high of $11.1 trillion. Travel & Tourism should be able to make additional contribution of $770 billion over the previous record. This will help the industry regain its stature of global economic powerhouse. By 2034, travel and tourism is expected to account for ~11.4% of the entire economic landscape, with the contribution as high as $16 trillion to broader global economy.
Tourism and hospitality is on the cusp of disruption. Shift in source markets and destinations, higher demand for luxury traveling, and innovative business strategies are expected to improve the industry landscape.
As per McKinsey & Company, China’s $744 billion domestic travel market has been categorized as the world’s 2nd largest. Even after the opening up of borders, Chinese travellers prefer staying close to home. Resultantly, domestic destinations continue to benefit. Changchun (known for Changchun Ice and Snow Festival) saw 160% year over year growth in visitors in 2023. In 2024, domestic travel during Lunar New Year surpassed pre-pandemic levels by ~19%. As a result of this, some Chinese travel and tourism stocks saw their share prices move northwards.
China’s domestic travel market should grow by ~12% annually and surpass the United States’ to be counted as the world’s largest by the year 2030.
One of the signs of increased demand in the travel industry is growth in aircraft orders in the aerospace industry. We covered this back in July in 10 Best Aerospace and Defense Stocks to Buy Now, here’s a short excerpt from that article:
“While sharing his insights on commercial aviation at the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago on June 26, Tony Bancroft from Gabelli Funds said that he had noticed a significant growth in aircraft orders lately, with both Airbus and Boeing having a 12-year backlog of orders. He believes there are three reasons driving it. The first catalyst, according to him, is China which accounts for 20% of the growth in orders to cater to the growing middle class in both China and India who want to travel more. Another critical factor he cited during his talk was that business travel has finally returned to the 2019 pre-pandemic level. Lastly, Tony highlighted the rising middle class in the United States, and the world, which is increasing air travel and contributing to the economic growth in the industry.”
Our Methodology:
For this list, we sifted through 2 ETFs i.e., Defiance Hotel, Airline, and Cruise ETF and Amplify Travel Tech ETF. Then, we chose the companies with most hedge fund investors holding stakes in them, by using Insider Monkey’s Q1 2024 database. These stocks are in ascending order of hedge fund investors having positions in them.
“Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).”
A vacation home luxury bedroom setup with stunning decor showing a desired getaway experience.
Airbnb, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 56
Airbnb, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) operates as a global online marketplace for lodging and tourism experiences.
The company has now become profitable. This means that its prior investments are now paying off. It goes without saying that shareholders have been benefitted as the business was a loss-making one few years ago, but it is now making 16% on its capital. This means that Airbnb, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) has profitable reinvestment opportunities, and if this momentum continues going forward that can result in a multi-bagger performance.
Post handling ~140 million bookings 6 years ago, the company continues to target over 500 million nights and experiences booked in 2024, on the basis of the fact that it saw 132.6 million nights and experiences booked in 1Q 2024. This implies 9.5% rise from 121.1 million for the same period of the previous year.
Another point which makes a buying case for the company is the fact that there’s a significant opportunity for expansion in number of platform hosts over upcoming years. This is evident because its marketplace only has 5 million hosts, who have welcomed more than 1.5 billion guest arrivals.
Analysts at Tigress Financial initiated the coverage on Airbnb, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB), and increased their price target on the shares of Airbnb, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) from $185.00 to $195.00. They gave the company a “Buy” rating on 5th April.
Polen Capital, an investment management company, released its first-quarter 2024 investor letter. It gave its views regarding Airbnb, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB). Here is what it said:
“During the quarter, we initiated new positions in Sage Group and Airbnb, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) and added to our existing position in Globant.
Airbnb is a great business model, according to our research, due to its two-sided global network effects. For several reasons, Airbnb has a better mousetrap with its supply growth engine, with its hosts having a far lower cost of capital and more flexibility than hotels. We think private rentals should continue to grow their share of overall accommodation stays, potentially up to 30% of lodging or higher over the long term, letting the private rental gross booking value grow at a low double-digit rate. We also think Airbnb should continue to gain share within the private rental market as its global network effects strengthen, allowing for mid-teens revenue growth. With flat to rising margins over time, significant free cash flow generation, and a management team that has demonstrated its owner orientation, this should result in high-teens EPS growth over time. While the path there will not be linear, and it is a more discretionary spending-tied business, we think the long-term secular growth opportunity is very compelling.”
Overall ABNB ranks 7th on our list of the best travel and leisure stocks to buy. You can visit 10 Best Travel and Leisure Stocks to Buy Now to see the other travel and leisure stocks that are on hedge funds’ radar. While we acknowledge the potential of ABNB as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ABNB but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
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