Billionaire Ray Dalio recently took to social networking platform X to outline his thoughts on the current geopolitical situation and the impact it will have on global markets. Dalio runs Bridgewater Associates, a hedge fund that had a 13F portfolio worth more than $27 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025 with the top holdings concentrated in the financial services and technology sectors. In a detailed and sobering analysis shared in mid-March 2026, Ray Dalio argued that the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran had reached a critical “Final Battle” centered on the Strait of Hormuz, which he identified as the ultimate testing ground for the survival of the American-led global order.
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Dalio contended that this small geographical chokepoint was the world’s most significant strategic vulnerability, as it carried roughly 21% of the global oil supply and a massive portion of its liquefied natural gas; consequently, if Iran can successfully blocked the waterway or even impose a “toll booth” to decide which nations’ tankers may pass, the United States would have effectively lost its status as the primary global security guarantor. Drawing a historical parallel to the 1956 Suez Crisis—which signaled the symbolic end of the British Empire—Dalio warned that the US faced a similar “Suez Moment” where the inability to restore freedom of navigation would signal a fatal overextension of its military and economic power.
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He also highlighted a mismatch in warfare strategies, noting that while the US and Israel possessed conventional military superiority, Iran was winning a “war of attrition” against the global economy by using low-cost drones and mines to deter shipping and insurance companies, effectively collapsing traffic by 97%. The post further emphasized the role of China, suggesting that if Iran offered safe passage to tankers trading in Chinese Yuan instead of US Dollar, it represented a direct assault on the petrodollar system that could finalize a transition to a multipolar world. Dalio concluded that this confrontation was the decisive moment of the “Big Cycle,” warning that failure to secure the Strait would lead to a loss of reserve currency status, a flight from US debt, and a shift in global alliances toward rising powers like China.
Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates
Our Methodology
To compile our list of the best stocks to buy according to billionaire Ray Dalio, we reviewed the latest 13F filings of Bridgewater Associates. Next, we focused on the top 15 stocks in his portfolio. Data for the hedge fund sentiment surrounding each stock was taken from Insider Monkey’s Q4 2025 database of 1041 elite hedge funds.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 498.7% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 303 percentage points (see more details here).
Best Stocks to Buy According to Billionaire Ray Dalio
15. Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA)
Bridgewater Associates’ Stake: $234 Million
Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) has featured in the 13F portfolio of Bridgewater Associates since the first quarter of 2013. This stake was a minor one, consisting of just 10,000 shares, and was sold off by the next quarter. Since then, Mastercard made occasional appearances in the 13F filings for the fund. A new position, opened in early 2022, however, has endured. This holding climbed to over 577,000 shares at one point in 2022, but has been trimmed since then. Filings for the fourth quarter of 2025 show that the fund owned 409,000 shares in the payments company, representing an increase of 11% compared to filings for the third quarter of 2025.
Based on elite hedge fund sentiment, Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) is a quintessential compounder stock. It is frequently cited as a top-ten holding for diversified funds because of a near-monopoly status, high margins, and role as a toll booth for the global economy. Hedge funds view Mastercard as an unassailable business. The cost and complexity of building a global payment rail are so high that new competitors usually end up building on top of Mastercard’s network rather than replacing it. Every new merchant that accepts Mastercard makes the card more valuable to consumers, and vice versa. This virtuous cycle is a magnet for long-term institutional capital.
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