Global commodity dynamics in mid‑2025 point to a market undergoing fragmentation, not collapse. While the World Bank projects an overall 12% decline in the broad commodity price index this year (after a smaller drop in 2024), the movement is anything but uniform. Energy markets are driving most of the pullback, forecast to fall 17% in 2025 and another 6% in 2026, while several key sub-markets have veered off-script entirely, defying gravity or plunging on policy shocks.

In July alone, the energy index slipped 0.6%, largely on the back of a 6% drop in European natural gas. Agricultural and raw material prices remained flat, food edged up 0.9%, while fertilizers climbed 8.1%. In contrast, beverage prices collapsed nearly 11%, driven by cocoa and coffee corrections following their parabolic rise earlier this year. Metals rose 1.5%, continuing a trend of quiet resilience beneath global trade volatility.

Oil remains a global fulcrum. OPEC+ restored over 2.5 million barrels per day in recent months, including a 547,000 bpd increase in September, without triggering a full price breakdown. Inventories remain tight, but a slowdown in global demand has kept Brent crude hovering around $68–70/bbl, with some bearish projections targeting sub‑$60 levels by year-end if oversupply materializes. Pricing behavior is now tethered less to physical scarcity than to trust in OPEC’s cohesion, and the perceived durability of China’s recovery.

Copper, the most industrially sensitive metal, saw a blistering 40% YTD surge, only to crash 22% in a single session following the U.S. tariff announcements, one of the steepest one-day drops in futures history. The violence of the move revealed how deeply speculative the rally had become, and how exposed commodities are to geopolitical signaling rather than industrial fundamentals. China’s own copper ore imports rose 6.4% in H1, while finished copper imports fell 4.6%, suggesting adaptive substitution amid price volatility.

Meanwhile, gold has gained around 15% YTD, buoyed by demand for perceived safe-haven assets and a weakening dollar narrative, while silver has quietly outperformed with a ~30% rally, supported by industrial demand linked to EVs and renewables. These movements show that monetary hedge and green transition themes are not fading despite the broader market’s slowdown.

And then there’s cocoa, a case study in supply fragility. After devastating crop losses in West Africa, prices spiked from ~$3,500/t to over $11,000/t, triggering historic volatility and a collapse in demand from major processors. Though prices have since come off those highs, the sector remains highly unstable, with speculative interest still dense.

Trading metrics reinforce the story: average daily volume in commodity futures rose to nearly 6 million contracts in Q2, a record figure, even as the composite price index declined. That divergence reflects not a collapse in interest but a rotation of capital, with volatility replacing momentum as the dominant driver.

In short: the 2025 commodity landscape is a patchwork. Some segments are oversupplied and drifting; others are cracking under structural strain. What emerges is not a synchronized cycle, but a jagged terrain defined by localized shocks, policy reactions, and speculative surges, more chessboard than tide.

Methodology

For our list, we scoured through commodity ETFs, and picked stocks that had the highest number of hedge fund holders as of Q1, 2025 across different branches of the commodities sector.

Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).

11. Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 32

Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR) is one of the best commodity stocks to buy. On July 17, 2025, Wells Fargo reiterated its Equal Weight rating on the company while nudging its price target from $59 to $62. Though the rating remained unchanged, the upward revision suggests a slight improvement in Wells Fargo’s view of Nutrien’s near-term prospects. The modest target hike likely reflects stable pricing conditions in fertilizer markets or incremental signs of margin recovery after a challenging period for the ag sector. Still, the decision to hold the line on a neutral rating points to lingering caution, perhaps tied to global demand uncertainty or tight cash flows.

Wells Fargo’s position aligns with a broader analyst consensus that sees Nutrien as fundamentally solid, but not yet primed for a breakout. The price target increase may signal confidence in operational execution or pricing discipline, but likely stops short of a bullish call due to structural headwinds or capital allocation concerns.

Nutrien (NYSE:NTR) is the world’s largest provider of crop inputs and services, with a strong presence in potash, nitrogen, and phosphate production. Headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada, the company serves growers across North and South America, Australia, and beyond.

10. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 42

CF Industries (NYSE:CF) is one of the best commodity stocks to buy. On July 14, 2025, the company marked a major step in its low-carbon transition by launching a new CO₂ dehydration and compression unit at its Donaldsonville Complex. The facility, developed in collaboration with ExxonMobil, is designed to capture and permanently store up to 2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually. With this infrastructure in place, CF expects to produce roughly 1.9 million tons of low-carbon ammonia per year, opening the door to new markets and potentially more favorable regulatory treatment under clean energy mandates.

This carbon capture project also makes the company eligible for Section 45Q tax credits in the United States, which incentivize long-term sequestration efforts. The move signals that CF is not just talking sustainability but actively integrating it into its production model. As the global ammonia market begins to tilt toward lower-emission inputs, CF’s head start could pay off in both pricing power and institutional investor favor.

CF Industries is a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, supplying fertilizer and industrial solutions across North America and international markets. The company is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois, and operates a network of production and distribution facilities across the U.S., Canada, and the UK.