In this article, we’ll talk about the top 10 countries where population is declining. To gain more insights into the world’s demographics, read 24 Countries With Biggest Population Decline.
10. Japan
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 16.30%
Annual Population Change: -0.40%
Composite Ranking: 10
Japan has the highest percentage of an aging population in the world, with 28.2% of its people currently aged 65 and older. Moreover, the country’s fertility rate is 1.3 children per woman, and the life expectancy at birth is 82 years. All these factors contribute to the shrinking of the country’s reproductive population, and with the growing economic pressure to maintain a certain lifestyle, people are discouraged from expanding their families. Therefore, Japan’s current population of 125 million is projected to decrease to 119 million by 2030 and eventually to 73 million by 2100.
9. Romania
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 15.50%
Annual Population Change: -0.90%
Composite Ranking: 9
Since joining the European Union in 2007, Romania has witnessed a significant exodus of its citizens to Western Europe. This surge in emigration is compounded by a fertility rate that has fallen below the replacement level. As of 2023, Romania’s fertility rate stands at approximately 1.6 children per woman, leading to an average annual population decline of -0.9%.
8. Belarus
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 15.33%
Annual Population Change: -1%
Composite Ranking: 8
As of 2023, the average age in Belarus has been increasing, indicating a growing proportion of older adults. This demographic shift is accompanied by low birth rates and emigration, particularly among the working-age population, which collectively affect the country’s population growth rate. Moreover, political unrest and economic uncertainties have also contributed to the emigration trend as citizens seek stability. Additionally, health factors, including a relatively high mortality rate and issues related to alcohol consumption, further influence the population dynamics.
7. Croatia
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 18%
Annual Population Change: -0.60%
Composite Ranking: 7
After joining the European Union in 2013, Croatia has experienced a substantial emigration of its population. The country’s unemployment rate, which currently stands at 6.5%, and stagnant wages have played a significant role in driving this trend.
6. Moldova
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 16.70%
Annual Population Change: -0.90%
Composite Ranking: 6
Moldova’s population decline is one of the most severe in Eastern Europe, primarily driven by economic factors. With limited job opportunities and one of the lowest GDPs in Europe, many Moldovans have emigrated. The World Bank estimated that as of 2023, approximately a quarter of Moldova’s working-age population lived abroad. This mass emigration has resulted in a significant reduction in the reproductive-age population, contributing to a declining birth rate.
5. Albania
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 15.80%
Annual Population Change: -1.30%
Composite Ranking: 5
Albania’s population decline is a recent phenomenon, transitioning from population growth to decline over the past decade. The fertility rate in Albania has also seen a decline, although it remains slightly higher than in some other European countries. As of 2023, the fertility rate was approximately 1.6 children per woman. Rural-to-urban migration within Albania has further contributed to this trend as people move from rural areas to cities, both within and outside Albania.
4. Serbia
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 18.90%
Annual Population Change: -1.10%
Composite Ranking: 4
Serbia’s population decline can be partially attributed to economic uncertainties and shifting social norms, where younger generations prioritize their careers and personal development over early family formation. Additionally, Serbia faces a significant health challenge, with high mortality rates from non-communicable diseases such as heart disease and cancer, which further exacerbate the population decrease.
3. Bosnia and Herzegovina
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 18.20%
Annual Population Change: -1.20%
Composite Ranking: 3
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the population decline has deep roots in the long-term aftermath of the 1990s conflict. The war resulted in a significant loss of life and displacement, leaving lasting scars on the demographic structure. The country also grapples with unique political and economic instability due to its complex governance system. This instability has led to a lack of substantial foreign investment and slow economic growth, indirectly affecting birth rates.
2. Ukraine
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 19.50%
Annual Population Change: -14.20%
Composite Ranking: 2
Ukraine’s population decline, as of early 2023, has been significantly influenced by the ongoing conflict in the eastern regions and the annexation of Crimea. These geopolitical issues have resulted in internal displacement and loss of life, directly impacting the country’s demographic statistics. Furthermore, Ukraine faces a significant public health challenge, with one of Europe’s highest rates of HIV/AIDS and related illnesses affecting its younger, reproductive-age population.
1. Bulgaria
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 22.50%
Annual Population Change: -6.20%
Composite Ranking: 1
Bulgaria has one of the world’s fastest-shrinking populations, primarily attributed to a high death rate and a low birth rate. Major health-related issues, such as high rates of smoking and alcohol consumption, contribute to Bulgaria’s elevated mortality rate. Furthermore, Bulgaria faces challenges in retaining its younger population due to a lack of economic opportunities and declining living standards in certain areas, indirectly contributing to its demographic decline.
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