In this article, we will examine the consumer defensive stocks to buy, as recommended by analysts.
During market volatility, consumer defensive stocks serve as lifeboats, providing a safe harbor for investors. These companies offer essential goods and services that the market needs, regardless of the conditions. Analysts and research firms are closely monitoring this space, identifying companies that not only have defensive characteristics but also exhibit growth potential.
On December 5, Schwab Center for Financial Research published “Sector Views: Monthly Stock Sector Outlook,” analyzing the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors. While the entity upgraded its six- to 12-month outlook on Communication Services, Industrials, and Health Care to Outperform, it downgraded Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate, and Utilities to Underperform. The research firm bases its view on pockets of consumer stress, particularly among lower-income consumers, and on challenging fundamentals. However, they maintained their Market Perform view on Consumer Staples.
Later on December 8, Morningstar’s chief US market strategist, David Sekera, published an article titled “December 2025 US Stock Market Outlook: Where We See Investment Opportunities.” He highlighted that the consumer defensive, utility, industrial, and financial services sectors remain overvalued. While he noted that the overall consumer defensive valuation premium has increased to 11% as of the end of November, the overvaluation is primarily in Walmart and Costco, with other food and packaged goods stocks significantly undervalued.
Keeping this in mind, we have compiled a list of consumer defensive stocks to buy according to analysts. These stocks belong to companies that combine durability with upside potential.
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Our Methodology
For this article, we filtered for stocks in the Consumer Defensive sector with a market capitalisation exceeding $2 billion. We then shortlisted the top eleven companies with over 20% upside potential and ranked them in ascending order. We also included data on hedge fund holdings in these companies based on Insider Monkey’s database, as of Q3 2025.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 427.7% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 264 percentage points (see more details here).
10. BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BJ)
Upside Potential as of December 12, 2025: 23.44%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 37
As of December 12, BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BJ) has a ‘Buy’ or equivalent rating from slightly more than half the analysts covering the stock. While the target price ranges from $90 to $139, the median price target of $115 reflects an upside potential of 23.44%. Among the 40% analysts recommending holding the stock is Chris Graja, an analyst at Argus Research, who maintained the ‘Hold’ rating on BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BJ) on December 5.
Earlier on November 21, BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BJ) reported its third-quarter results, delivering revenue in line with the estimates and earnings $0.06 above guidance. Overall, the company demonstrated resilience in a challenging retail environment, with net sales up 4.8% year over year. With a focus on value and digital innovation, the company remains committed to driving consumer engagement.
Keeping this performance in mind, several analysts revised their outlook. On November 24, TheFly reported that UBS cut BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BJ) to $120 from $125, with an unchanged ‘Buy’ rating. Similarly, Baird reduced the company’s price target to $115 from $130 and kept an ‘Outperform’ rating. According to TheFly, the firm “updated its model following Q3 results.”
BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BJ) is a Massachusetts-based company operating membership warehouse clubs in the eastern United States. Founded in 1984, the company offers its products through its clubs, the BJs.com website, and its mobile app.
9. Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI)
Upside Potential as of December 12, 2025: 23.78%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 38
On December 12, RBC outlined its “Top Retail Stocks for 2026,” naming Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) as one of its preferred stocks. According to the firm, the company is poised to greatly benefit from next year’s anticipated economic conditions, including low-income consumer pressure and retail media/AI driving industry consolidation.
Looking ahead to 2026, RBC expects Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) to expand its footprint with roughly 75 new stores, drive healthy gross margin improvement through a better supply chain, and benefit from cycling past expenses.
Separately, on December 11, Citi trimmed the price target on Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) to $141 from $150, while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating, following the earnings report. On the other hand, Craig-Hallum lifted the price target on the company to $157.00 from $156.00 and kept a ‘Buy’ rating on December 10. The firm highlighted the company’s robust third-quarter results and raised full-year guidance.
Overall, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) has a ‘Buy’ or equivalent rating from 63% of analysts covering the stock, with the remaining recommending holding the stock, as of December 12. With a median price target of $141, the stock has 23.78% upside.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) is a Pennsylvania-based retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory. Incorporated in 1982, the company has a mission to “sell Good Stuff Cheap.”
8. Coty Inc. (NYSE:COTY)
Upside Potential as of December 12, 2025: 24.22%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 30
On December 12, TD Cowen reduced the price target on Coty Inc. (NYSE:COTY) to $3.75 from $4.00, maintaining a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. The updated price target reflects a potential upside of about 13% from the current price level.
According to the firm, this revision better reflects revenue growth estimates. Still, there are several risk factors, including “post-holiday destocking, promos, mass cosmetics pressure, and slower US recovery,” reported TheFly. Despite these challenges, TD Cowen highlighted some positive points for the company, mainly that U.S. prestige sell-in is expected to see growth reaccelerate in the second quarter, driven by ultra-premium products and fragrance mists.
In the first quarter, Coty Inc. (NYSE:COTY) posted an EPS of $0.12, missing analyst estimates of $0.15, and revenue of $1.58 billion, in line with guidance. Although it witnessed an 8% drop in total net revenue, the company remains a key player in the global fragrance space. That said, the company expects a rebound in net revenue in the second half of fiscal 2026.
CEO Sue Nabi said the company is “committed to re-accelerating performance and doubling down on its strengths.” At the same time, CFO Laurent Mercier added that “we continue to expect a return to profitable sales growth in the second half of fiscal 2026.”
Coty Inc. (NYSE:COTY) is a New York-based provider of branded beauty products worldwide. Founded in 1904, the company operates through two segments: the Prestige and Consumer Beauty.
7. Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POST)
Upside Potential as of December 12, 2025: 26.60%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 26
As of December 12, Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POST) has a ‘Buy’ or equivalent rating from 80% of the analysts covering the stock. The median price target of $125 reflects an upside potential of 26.60% from the current price.
According to TheFly, Mizuho reduced the price target on Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POST) to $120 from $122 on December 1, keeping an unchanged ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm highlighted the company’s U.S. consumer brands and cereal headwinds in Europe.
Separately, on November 26, the company announced a new $500 million share repurchase authorization, which became effective on November 27. The previous $500 million program, under which the company repurchased $275.2 million in shares as of November 25, has been cancelled.
Earlier, on November 20, Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POST) delivered its fourth-quarter results, reporting an EPS of $2.09, $0.22 better than the consensus of $1.87, and revenue of $2.2 billion, lower than the analyst estimate of $2.25 billion.
During the earnings call, management reaffirmed the company’s strategic focus. As stated by CEO Rob Vitale,
“We expect the benefits of our diversification will allow us to navigate an environment of continued uncertainty.”
A series of analyst upgrades followed the mixed financial performance. On November 24, David Palmer from Evercore ISI trimmed the price target on Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POST) to $129 from $131, while keeping an ‘Outperform’ rating. Three days earlier, Stifel reaffirmed its Buy rating and $130 price target.
Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POST) is a Missouri-based consumer packaged goods holding company. Founded in 1895, the company operates through four segments: Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, and Refrigerated Retail.
6. Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ)
Upside Potential as of December 12, 2025: 27.68%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 50
On December 12, Jefferies maintained its top picks in the food industry and named Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) among “its preferred large-cap selections.” The firm noted that despite current consumer challenges expected to carry into next year, there is potential for second-half upside if demand-focused initiatives begin to pay off and the industry moves past peak pressure.
Jefferies believes that the ongoing headwinds impacting the food industry will persist in 2026 as consumers remain under financial strain. Persistent tariff volatility, revised SNAP eligibility, and possible effects from GLP-1 weight loss medications in pill form pose additional threats. In light of this, Jefferies expressed confidence in companies with margin improvement potential and with organic growth levers in this macro environment.
Earlier on November 21, Piper Sandler trimmed the price target on Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) to $62 from $63 with an unchanged ‘Neutral’ rating, according to TheFly. The revised price target incorporates the impact of GLP-1 news, tariff relief, company-specific updates, and increased ABV headwinds, the firm stated.
On the other hand, Megan Alexander of Morgan Stanley reaffirmed a ‘Buy’ rating on the company on December 11, setting a price target of $64. The price target reflects an upside potential of 18%.
Overall, Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) has a ‘Buy’ or equivalent rating from 71% of the analysts covering the stock as of December 12. With a median price target of $69, the stock has an upside potential of 27.68%.
Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) is an Illinois-based company specializing in snack food and beverage products. Founded in 2000, the company is committed to empowering people “to snack right.”
5. Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ:SFD)
Upside Potential as of December 12, 2025: 28.72%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 44
As of December 12, Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ:SFD) is a consensus buy from over 80% of the analysts covering the stock. With a price target range of $25 to $33, the median target of $29 implies 28.72% upside.
On December 9, Benjamin Theurer, an analyst at Barclays, reaffirmed the ‘Buy’ rating on Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ:SFD), while setting a price target of $30, which suggests an upside potential of nearly 33% from the current price.
Earlier, in late October, Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ:SFD) reported robust performance across all businesses in its third-quarter results. On the results, its President and CEO, Shane Smith, had expressed,
“I am pleased to report that our team delivered consistent, disciplined execution on our strategies, which drove sales growth and record third quarter operating profit in a challenging environment,”
Looking ahead, Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ:SFD) forecasted its total company-adjusted operating profit to be between $1,225 million and $1,325 million. Additionally, the company expected the Packaged Meats segment adjusted operating profit to be in the range of $1,060 million to $1,110 million.
Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ:SFD) is a Virginia-based producer of packaged meats and fresh pork. Founded in 1936, the company operates as a subsidiary of SFDS UK Holdings Limited.
4. Performance Food Group Company (NYSE:PFGC)
Upside Potential as of December 12, 2025: 28.82%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 51
On December 12, Brian Mullan, an analyst at Piper Sandler, reduced the price target on Performance Food Group Company (NYSE:PFGC) to $111 from $116, while keeping an ‘Overweight’ rating. According to TheFly, the firm believes that the restaurant group has pulled back recently, mainly due to the “fears over the underlying demand trends across the Restaurant industry,” which is the largest client of the Food Distribution industry.
As a result, Piper Sandler notes that the company has become “particularly attractive from a valuation perspective” after a decline over the last few months. With confidence, the current price reflects “a great entry point” if the company is able to achieve its long-term targets, the firm notes. What’s even more interesting is that Piper Sandler calls Performance Food Group Company (NYSE:PFGC) a “top pick” within its food distribution market.
Earlier on December 5, Barclays analyst Jeff Bernstein maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on Performance Food Group Company (NYSE:PFGC), along with a price target of $120. This aligns with the overall market sentiment, as the company is a buy among almost all analysts covering the stock. With a median price target of $120, the stock has an upside potential of 28.82%.
Performance Food Group Company (NYSE:PFGC) is a Virginia-based company specializing in the marketing and distribution of food and food-related products. Incorporated in 1885, the company operates through three segments: Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty.
3. JBS N.V. (NYSE:JBS)
Upside Potential as of December 12, 2025: 38.89%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 38
On December 11, Guilherme Palhares from Grupo Santander upgraded JBS N.V. (NYSE:JBS) to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral,’ with a price target of $17, according to TheFly. This reflects potential upside of nearly 18% from the current price.
Later on December 12, Reuters reported the permanent closure of JBS N.V. (NYSE:JBS)’s facility outside Los Angeles. The facility, which prepares beef to sell at U.S. grocery stores, will shut down because of tight cattle supplies, lifting costs for meatpackers. This discontinuation of the Swift Beef Company facility will result in 374 jobs cuts, as reported by the state’s Employment Development Department.
Just after ranchers brought the U.S. cattle herd down to the lowest level, beef prices set record highs. What made matters worse was the halt on U.S. imports of Mexican cattle, a step that reduced the supplies further. In light of this tension, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his efforts to lower beef prices for consumers and blamed meatpacking companies for manipulating the market to raise prices.
On the contrary, a company’s spokesperson denied that the closure was due to low cattle supplies, describing the closure as “part of a strategic initiative to optimize its value-added and case-ready business and simplify operations across its network.”
JBS N.V. (NYSE:JBS) is a Netherlands-based protein and food company operating worldwide. Founded in 1953, the company provides beef, poultry, plant-based, and leather products.
2. Celsius Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CELH)
Upside Potential as of December 12, 2025: 54.72%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 58
On December 12, Matthew Smith, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus, reaffirmed the ‘Buy’ rating on Celsius Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CELH), while setting a price target of $60, which suggests an upside potential of about 37%.
Just two days earlier, Morgan Stanley analyst Eric Serotta also reiterated the ‘Buy’ rating on Celsius Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CELH) and a $64 price target. This reflects an upside potential of approximately 46%.
Separately, on November 26, UBS maintained its Buy rating and $65 on Celsius Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CELH) as the company pushed ahead with its transition from the Alani Nu brand to the Pepsi system. The firm pointed out that Alani Nu’s growth has decelerated significantly over the past few weeks, posing challenges from the near-future shift and limited-time offers in 2026.
UBS noted that the initial Nielsen data raised concerns but stated that the market research firm isn’t properly coding Celsius’ Winter Wonderland limited-time offer. Although Nielsen has since included supporting data to reflect the limited-time offer better, UBS indicated “some modest slowing for the brand and sequential market share pressure for the broader portfolio.”
Overall, Celsius Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CELH) has a ‘Buy’ or equivalent rating from 76% of the analysts covering the stock. With a median price target of $68, the company has upside potential of approximately 55%.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CELH) is a Florida-based provider of functional energy drinks. Founded in 2004, the company offers CELSIUS, CELSIUS Originals and Vibe, CELSIUS ESSENTIALS, CELSIUS On-the-Go Powder, and CELSIUS Hydration, as well as CELSIUS ready-to-drink products.
1. Primo Brands Corporation (NYSE:PRMB)
Upside Potential as of December 12, 2025: 67.91%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 62
As of December 12, Primo Brands Corporation (NYSE:PRMB) is rated a ‘Buy’ by 80% of the analysts covering the stock. While the target price ranges from $18 to $42, the median price target of $27 implies an upside potential of around 68%.
On December 5, Nik Modi, an analyst at RBC Capital, reaffirmed the ‘Buy’ rating on Primo Brands Corporation (NYSE:PRMB). The price target of $30 suggests an upside potential of about 82% from the current price level.
On the other hand, analysts at Mizuho lowered the stock’s price target from $35 to $28 while reiterating their Outperform rating on November 26. The analysts highlighted recent Nielsen scanner data indicating soft retail volumes and higher discounts as the drivers of the change.
At a fundamental level, the company appears confident in its strategy with several growth initiatives in place. As per the management’s latest guidance, reducing debt to the medium-term net leverage target of 2.0 to 2.5 times remains a priority, down from 3.37 times at the end of the third quarter. In addition, they expect operating conditions entering 2026 to be better than in 2025, driven by a favorable tariff environment.
Primo Brands Corporation (NYSE:PRMB) is a Connecticut-based branded beverage company that operates under various names including Primo Water, Mountain Valley, and Deer Park.
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