I tend to be skeptical about investing in stocks that have enjoyed substantial run-ups that I missed out on. Like Benjamin Graham, I like my cigarette-butt stocks and reject the idea of riding momentum to success. But the more I observe the market, the more I start to realize that value can exist in stocks that are feeling the love from Wall Street.
Today, I’ll make my first pick using my new approach. The stock? Five Star Quality Care, Inc. (FVE), which has enjoyed a run-up of more than 60% over the last 52 weeks. It enjoys a four-star CAPS rating, but I think it deserves five stars.
Five Star’s main business is operating 207 assisted living facilities and 38 nursing homes, but it also leases and operates two rehabilitation hospitals along with the 13 clinics associated with them. Senior living provides the bulk of its revenue, and 73% of its senior living revenue comes from residents’ own funds, the remainder from Medicaid and Medicare. More specifically, over three quarters of assisted living revenues, but less than a quarter of nursing home revenues, are from private payors.
As assisted living facilities are Five Star’s bread and butter, this situation reduces the company’s sensitivities to the vagaries of Congress and places it in a strong position, especially given that the majority of nursing home and assisted living revenues nationwide are government-derived. It only helps that the population is aging and that this fragmented industry is ripe for consolidation.
The Curious Life of Five Star Quality Care
Five Star’s birth was inauspicious, to say the least, essentially the product of a large-scale eviction. Parent company Senior Housing Properties Trust (NYSE:SNH), a REIT, had some problem tenants operating senior living facilities in its properties.
The REIT took over, creating its own management company, which was spun off as Five Star in 2002. Ever since, Five Star and SNH have been closely related. To this day, Five Star leases the real estate housing all 38 of its nursing homes and 149 of its assisted living facilities from SNH.
The Value Proposition
To understand the value in Five Star, first take a look at rivals Brookdale Senior Living, Inc. (NYSE:BKD) , with 12 times the market capitalization, Emeritus Corporation (NYSE:ESC), with four times the market capitalization, and self-described “value leader” Capital Senior Living Corporation (NYSE:CSU) .
Wall Street darlings as of late, all three are very similar to Five Star. For starters, they target seniors with the wherewithal to pay for chef-created meals, daily activities, and comfortable surroundings. They derive around 80% or more of their revenue from residents, instead of Medicare or Medicaid. In 2011, Emeritus and Five Star led the pack at over 87%, whereas Brookdale lagged at 79.5%.