Why Diageo plc (DEO) Shares Have Been Climbing

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LONDON -- It looks like a busy week for Diageo plc (NYSE:DEO), as it is set to release its interim results on Thursday. The shares have put on almost 60 pence from when I earmarked them as a potential buying opportunity less than two weeks ago. Here, I look at what may have caused the recent climb.

Interim results Diageo has always said it has been confident of delivering its medium-term goals, and this week's statement is likely to confirm that the group is performing in line with market expectations. Analyst forecasts for 2012-2013 suggest organic top-line growth of 6.5%, which would surpass the company's previous 6% target.

My Foolish colleague G.A. Chester also suggests investors might see a first-half dividend of around 18.3 pence per share announced, though he warns that analyst EPS forecasts of around 103 pence give an increase of 9.3%, "representing a slight miss on the company's goal of double-digit growth."

Diageo's shares have soared 32% over the past year, while the FTSE 100 has risen just 7%. Over 10 years, Diageo's shares have risen an impressive 195%.

South Africa On Monday, Diageo also confirmed that it had entered into a 23 million pound joint-venture agreement to acquire a 50% interest in the company that owns United National Breweries' traditional sorghum beer business in South Africa, pending consent from the South African competition authority.

The remaining 50% will be held by a company affiliated to Dr. Vijay Mallya, after announcing a "memorandum of understanding" that Diageo and Dr. Mallya would form the 50:50 joint-venture back in November.

This move presents the world's leading premium drinks business as not only a defensive share that ought to fare well during these turbulent economic times, but also as a possible play on emerging markets.

Indeed, consumer-goods company Unilever N.V. (NYSE:UN) is benefiting from developing countries as well, recently reporting that 55% of its turnover now comes from emerging markets. Both businesses look set to continue their fast growth overseas, which can only be beneficial for shareholders.

India It hasn't been a completely rosy start to the week for the drinks major, though, as negotiations with the authorities in India about the 1.3 billion pound deal for a majority stake in Indian drinks giant United Spirits hit a snag over the weekend.

The authorities questioned whether a put clause in the agreement was compliant with Indian law and, as such, the deal may now be delayed until the second quarter of the year.

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