Do you remember when you were a kid and your parents told you that money didn't grow on trees? That usually ended the discussion while also putting an end to your dream of a new toy that day. Unfortunately for you, what your parents told you was only partially true.
Sure, dollar bills don't grow on trees. But the trees themselves are worth big bucks, and the marketplace for timber and its associated products are a multibillion dollar global industry. For a good primer on the industry, be sure to check out fellow Fool Dan Newman's Timber 101.
Timber as an asset class is a favored investment for many institutions. It has a lot to offer as it's a lower-risk asset, which provides portfolio diversification and acts as a hedge against inflation risk. Unlike many of the other investment options available, it offers investors true "organic" growth as the trees grow each year. Looking into the year ahead, there are three major structural changes under way in the industry that investors need to watch.
The Canadian supply shock
The Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic that's been ravaging Canadian forests will continue to take its toll. For decades, the annual allowable cut in B.C. was around 70 million m3, however, that number bumped up to nearly 90 million m3 from 2005 to 2010 to utilize dead and dying trees. The allowable harvest has been falling rapidly over the past couple of years, and by 2015 the B.C. government projects sustainable harvest levels to be in the 50 to 60 million m3 through 2075.
Since peaking in 2008, we've seen a nearly 10 million m3 shrinkage in the allowable cut. With another 20 million to 30 million m3 in reductions over the next couple of years, it'll mean one thing: The U.S. timber industry will need to fill in much of the gap. This is especially important for those companies with timberlands on the West Coast because of the increased demand from China.
The Chinese demand shock
Like it is with most commodities, China is the largest importer of timber. Since 2003, exports of North American lumber has increased 20 times, and it represented 7% of North American lumber production in 2011. That's likely to continue to increase for the foreseeable future, with West Coast producers seeing the greatest lift from this trend.
Taken together, the supply impact from Canada with increased exports to China will have a major impact on the timber market. It's estimated that between 12% to 22% of the North American lumber market will be affected by these structural changes in the market. Some timberland-related companies will see a greater impact from these trends.
West Coast investment opportunities
Topping the list with nearly 2 million acres in its U.S. West business is Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE:WY) . The company has one of the largest acreage positions with access to the lucrative export markets. However, just a quarter of its revenue is generated from its timberlands segment. Moreover, just a third of its acres are in the U.S. West.
Another less direct option for investors is Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (NYSE:BIP). While only representing 14% of Brookfield Infrastructure Partners revenue, the company does have all 419,000 acres of its timberlands in costal locations with access to Asian markets. In 2012, exports represented 39% of total volumes. After deferring 2.9 million m3 of harvest volumes due to unfavorable pricing the past few years, the company now sees the opportunity to increase its long-run sustainable yield to 120% for the next decade to take advantage of the eventual recovery of log prices. This will add a nice boost to earnings. Insider Monkey beat the market by 20 percentage points in 6 months - Learn how!
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