With disappointing results from other high-end retail brands, Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UA) investors face a scary earnings report on January 31. A leading developer and marketer of athletic apparel and footwear has already seen a significant decline providing some solace that any weak results might already be priced into the stock.
The main concerns come from retail peers such as Coach, Inc. (NYSE:COH) and Lululemon Athletica inc. (NASDAQ:LULU) that have reported disappointing holiday sales suggesting that the high-end brands might have struggled to meet ever increasing analyst expectations.
As late as October, Under Armour traded near all-time highs over $60 and yet after the recent drop the stock trades for an enormous 30x forward earnings.
While the company historically has beat earnings estimates by a one or two cents each quarter, analysts have dropped expectations for the next few quarters. In fact, the 2013 estimates have dropped to $1.50 from $1.54 over the last 90 days.
The estimates still forecast a 25% gain next year though the stock trades at over 31x estimates. The forecasts are for only 21% 5-year growth rates.
Coach, Inc. (NYSE:COH) results
The luxury handbag maker reported Q2 results that missed analyst estimates by $0.05 causing the stock to plunge 15%. The company only reported earnings that rose 4% over last year further suggesting a difficult retail market.
The company reported that North American holiday sales proved challenging. On the flip side, the company got huge gains in China with same-store sales rising at double-digit rates.
With revenue expected to hit over $5B in fiscal year 2013 that ends in June, it also hints at the issue with reaching a size that limits the ability to grow fast. While less than half the size, Under Armour is now reaching the $2B sales level.