Newmont Mining Corp (NEM), Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (ABX): Goodbye Gold

Gold’s dramatic rise over the past few years has been made more interesting by its recent fall from grace.  Gold currently trades around $1,365 per ounce, down significantly from it’s 52-week high of over $1,800.  During the time of gold’s ascent, many market pundits were advising that miners were a great way for investors to gain exposure to the commodity.  They reasoned that the miners would benefit from the increase in gold prices, but offered some diversity from gold if they mined other metals.

While gold has fallen mightily over the past few months, these mining stocks have had it even worse.

Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM)

Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM)Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM engages in the acquisition, exploration, and production of gold and copper properties. The company’’s operations are located in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Mexico, and New Zealand. As of Dec. 31, 2012, it had proven and probable gold reserves of approximately 99.2 million ounces and an aggregate land position of approximately 29,000 square miles. In 2012, 92% of the company’s sales were attributable to gold.

Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX)

Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX) engages in the production, exploration, development, and sale of gold and copper.  The company holds interests in the producing gold mines, which are concentrated in North America, South America, and Australia Pacific; producing copper mines located in Chile and Zambia; and a mine under construction is located in Saudi Arabia. In addition, it holds interests in oil and gas properties located in Canada. As of Dec. 31, 2012, the company had proven and probable mineral reserves of 140.2 million ounces of gold, 1.05 billion ounces of silver contained within gold reserves, and 13.9 billion pounds of copper.  In 2012, 86.4% of the company’s revenues were attributable to gold.

Kinross Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:KGC)

Kinross Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:KGC) engages in mining and processing gold and silver ores. It is involved in the exploration, acquisition, development, and operation of gold bearing properties. The company has operations in Canada, the United States, the Russian Federation, Brazil, Ecuador, Chile, Ghana, and Mauritania. As of Dec. 31, 2012, its proven and probable mineral reserves included 59.6 million ounces of gold, 68.2 million ounces of silver, and 1.4 billion pounds of copper.  In 2012, 61.4% of the company’s revenues were attributable to gold.

Gold ETF

For purposes of comparison to the spot price of gold, we will look at SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSEARCA:GLD).  This ETF seeks to replicate the performance, net of expenses, of the price of gold bullion.  This ETF is generally regarded as the primary ETF for gold exposure with $62.73 billion of net assets .

Disappointing Performance

The below chart shows the percentage decrease in price between the current price and the 52-week high.  While gold has not performed well, the mining stocks have clearly had a much uglier showing.

This chart show one-year performance, but even as a long-term investment, miners have dramatically underperformed gold.  The below chart shows the five-year annualized return for the stocks in question.

GLD 8.01%
NEM -7.45%
ABX -13.14%
KGC -23.37%

Foolish Conclusion

The future of gold remains uncertain, and you have investors on both sides of the debate.  Many think that this is just the beginning of the end as the gold bubble continues to deflate.  There are also those who view this as a buying opportunity as Central Banks continue to devalue their currencies through ultra-low interest rates. While gold’s direction is uncertain, the data above makes one thing clear; investors should spurn gold miners and invest directly in a gold ETF.

Put simply, mining stocks are now performing like levered bets on gold.  Due to their established cost basis per ounce, a drop in gold prices represents a much larger loss in profits then the drop in the spot price.  For example, if a miner has an all-in cost of $1,000/ounce and prices drop from $1600/ounce to $1,400 ounce, this represents a 12.5% drop in gold prices, but a 33% drop in profitability for the gold miner.

The article Goodbye Gold originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by John Timmes.

John is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network — entries represent the personal opinion of the blogger and are not formally edited.

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