2012 was a great year for the lodging companies with occupancy and RevPAR trends improving. Stock prices of these companies followed their business fundamentals and Marriott International, Inc. (NYSE:MAR), Wyndham Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:WYN) and InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (ADR) (NYSE:IHG) significantly outperformed the S&P 500. The following table shows some of the key parameters for these companies.
|Company Name||% Gain in Stock 2012||% increase in EPS 2012||5 Yr Expected PEG|
|InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (ADR) (NYSE:IHG)||56%||2.20%||1.51|
|Marriott International, Inc. (NYSE:MAR)||25%||27.80%||1.23|
|Wyndham Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:WYN)||42%||27.70%||0.95|
|Note: % increase in EPS and Forward PE data is sourced from Yahoo Finance and uses consensus estimates|
As the broader economy continues to improve, I thought it would be interesting to analyze the fundamental aspects of these companies going forward. Here’s a look at each of these stocks in detail.
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (ADR) (NYSE:IHG) is among those few companies which might have an interesting restructuring story for the next two years or so. Asset sales and greater cash returns remain the key drivers for the company's potential future growth. The company plans to dispose of four of its assets by 2015 in order to generate more cash returns for its shareholders.
Post all these restructuring activities, I expect ROCE which has always remained a key attraction for the company to jump around 56% and an EPS increment of ~10-14% annually.
Apart from the restructuring activities, the company has also launched two new brands EVEN Hotels and HUALUXE Hotels & Resorts. The company’s EVEN brand is the first ever hotel brand designed for health conscious travelers. Recently, IHG signed its first property signing for EVEN hotels in New York City which is scheduled to be opened in 2014. With this initiative, the company will be able to develop its portfolio with a set of brands for the new type of guests focused on wellness in terms of food, work, exercise and rest. Its HUALUXE brand is the world’s first international hotel brand which is specially designed for Chinese customers. After the launch, eight contracts have been signed for hotels in Beijing and Shanghai as well as six other locations across the country, a significant achievement in just five months. These strategic initiatives would lead to ~$150 million of capex growth in 2013. However, in the long run, it would enhance the company's portfolio of brands and would be helpful for its top-line growth. Moreover, I expect the company's favorable geographical mix and its 'asset light' approach will continue to outperform in the future.
Another lodging stock is Marriott International, Inc. (NYSE:MAR), which has around 99% of its properties under franchise or management agreements. These agreements generally have a long-term duration with initial periods of 20-30 years and a renewal option of around 50 years thereafter. This has been one of the key drivers for Marriott's success as it gives predictability for the company's earnings.