Preparing for Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UA)'s upcoming Q4 earnings on the 31st, I will take a deeper look at the apparel company and determine its long-term investing potential. With traders nervous about UA's future growth runway over the last 3 months, the market has watched as 20% of the company's value has disappeared.
Despite the sell-off, Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UA)'s P/E is still high at 45 and many are calling for a further decline in price as growth rates have begun to slow. With this in mind, I will preview UA's 4th quarter and determine whether or not they can justify their hefty valuations.
A Slight Twist on the Foolish 5 & 3
Today I'm going to borrow a technique from The Motley Fool's Stock Advisor service, called the "5 & 3." Usually a 5 & 3 consists of 5 positive and 3 negative events to keep an eye on during the upcoming earnings call. While this technique is incredibly useful by itself, I wanted to try something slightly unorthodox by mixing the 5 & 3 with my favorite technique, a simple SWOT analysis of the company.
By observing 5 positives, (3 opportunities and 2 strengths) along with 3 negatives, (2 threats and 1 major weakness) I hope to obtain a useful mix of current conditions and future possibilities. By focusing more on opportunities and threats, I hope to create a more forward-looking stance on earnings calls. Without further ado, here are 3 opportunities to watch for with Under Armour.
1. Geographical Expansion- 94%. Yes -- 94% -- of this $5 billion company's revenues comes from the North American continent. With continued growth from its main continent and ANY growth internationally, UA's growth runway couldn't look any brighter. Armed with a new marketing deal with the English Premiere League's Tottenham Hotspur, Under Armour is looking to take the plunge into the world's largest apparel market.
Furthermore, with the Chinese sportswear market expected to grow from $13 billion in '10 to $30 billion in '13, Under Armour has an immense opportunity to expand upon its almost nonexistent status in the country. With one shop set up in Shanghai as of 2012, UA's Chinese growth runway has barely even begun. Look for further international growth in Q4 with increasing growth rates, as revenue was only up 1% yoy in Q3 results.
2. Shoes and Accessories- While it may not have much of a sales presence in China, Under Armour considers its office in Guangzhou to be the "epicenter" of its footwear and accessory business lines. As they decide to slowly dive into the Chinese and Asian markets more fully, they will see huge synergies already having a manufacturing plant in the region.