Don’t Fret Over the American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC) Stock Offering

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As the CommonWealth REIT (NYSE:CWH) drama unfolds, the notion of “dilution” has been weighing on the minds of investors, as a coalition of stockholders sue the REIT over a secondary share offering they claim would overly dilute stockholders’ value.

Hot on the heels of this kerfuffle comes the announcement that American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC) is offering a secondary stock issuance of 50 million shares, as well as 7.5 million that underwriters may opt to purchase. With concerns over dilution front and center at the moment, it’s no wondersome are wary about whether this new issuance of stock is a good idea.

American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC)After taking a look at this issue, however, I’ve come to the conclusion that investors needn’t fear any injury from American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC)’s stock offering. In fact, history shows that this could actually be a boon to investors’ portfolios.

Key differences between the two REITs
While both companies are offering secondaries, the situations are like night and day. The biggest difference is the actual dilution factor. For Commonwealth, a stock issuance of 30 million shares, plus an additional 4.5 million set aside as an underwriters’ option represents a huge dilution factor when you consider that only 90 million shares were outstanding. American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC), on the other hand, has more than 340 million outstanding shares, so the offering won’t shock the system like the Commonwealth secondary would.

Another issue is the destination of the funds raised. Commonwealth plans to pay down debt, and the activist shareholders are obviously upset with the way the company is being run, as evidenced by a presentation filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, titled, “Restoring the Health to Commonwealth.”

American Capital Agency, however, plans to purchase some nice, juicy agency-backed mortgage-backed securities, which CIO Gary Kain has very recently noted is on the mREIT’s shopping list now that they have stabilized in price.

Secondary offerings are the nature of the REIT beast
As fellow Fool Dan Caplinger has explained, secondary offerings are fairly common with mREITs, and are not necessarily a bad thing. As devotees of the sector well know, REITs are required by law to pay out 90% of their profits to their shareholders, lest they lose that sweet tax position they currently enjoy.

This state of affairs doesn’t allow for a rainy-day fund into which mREITs can sock away funds with which to make purchases of more MBSes, and that’s where the secondaries come in. Since these new shares are offered at a price that is a smidge lower than the current price, however, the stock price usually declines.

How long will the price dip persist? It varies, but, by looking back in time, we can see that it isn’t onerous.

Shares rebound, and then some
For 2012, for instance, American Capital Agency announced a public offering of 62 million shares, with an additional 9.15 million for underwriters’ options, on March 7. On that date, the closing price was $30.27, which promptly fell to $29.35 the very next day, on unusually heavy trading. By April 18, however, the stock price had rebounded to $30.52, and it was pretty much uphill from there.

Again, another offering on July 17 for 32 million shares with a 4.8 million underwriters’ option saw shares close on the day at $35.29, which fell to $33.92 on July 18, having seen heavy trading that day. The rebound began almost immediately after that, though, and the closing price of $35.38 was attained on July 27.

Similarly, Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE:NLY)‘s most recent public offering of 120 million shares of common stock announced on July 11, 2011 caused a drop in the share price from $18.32 on the day to $18.05 on July 12, after extremely heavy trading. The price bounced around the $17 zone for a while, even dipping down to $16 and some change on occasion, until it registered $18.35 on August 15, 2011. Annaly had previously issued 75 million shares in February of that year, with an attendant $17.30 price tag.

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