Could This Safe Play Help Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY)?

Page 1 of 2

Note: This version has been amended to better reflect Victoza’s dosage recommendations.

At the American Diabetes Association meeting last month, Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY) presented promising data for the GLP-1 agonist dulaglutide. GLP-1s are a well-established diabetes drug class dominated by Novo Nordisk A/S (ADR) (NYSE:NVO) and Bristol Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE:BMY).

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY)

GLP-1 agonists are typically used as a second-line combo therapy for type 2 diabetes patients not responding to metformin and insulin. These drugs are generally well-tolerated and carry little risk of hypoglycemia, which makes this class one of the safest diabetes plays.

But how much could this safe play mean for Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY)’s overall health?

GLP-1 market

Twice-daily Byetta was the first GLP-1 to market with a Food and Drug Administration approval in 2005. But Victoza quickly took over after its 2010 approval due to a once-daily dosage.  Victoza has maintained a fairly steady climb ever since. The drug achieved 2012 sales of DKK 9.5 billion (or about $1.6 billion according to current conversion rates), and contributed 39% of the company’s overall sales growth.

Bydureon was brought out last year as a once-weekly version of Byetta. It’s still too early after launch to predict Bydureon’s sales growth, but EvaluatePharma pegged the drug as one of the top five “blockbuster duds” in the past year. Bydureon could see soft sales merely because Victoza got there first and patients don’t want to change treatments.

How does dulaglutide stack up?

Would the once-weekly dulaglutide hold its own in the GLP-1 market — or face a future even less certain than Bydureon’s?

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY) offered up data from three late-stage trials that showed dulaglutide outperforming Merck’s DPP-4 Januvia, Byetta, and metformin.  Dulaglutide helped patients control blood sugar better than the other drugs and also helped patients lose more weight.

Dulaglutide still has other competitor comparing trials underway. The late-stage trials include Lantus, the company’s own insulin Humalog, and — most importantly — one trial with Victoza. The Victoza trial won’t report until after dulaglutide goes before the FDA for approval later this year. But favorable results could push dulaglutide into a stronger market position.

Other new contenders

Sanofi SA (ADR) (NYSE:SNY)’s Lyxumia received FDA approval in the U.S. and Europe this past February. Lyxumia’s trial results were lackluster and drew criticism for being a Byetta clone. But, as I’ve written previously, Sanofi SA (ADR) (NYSE:SNY)’s really betting on this drug as a combo therapy for its $7 billion Lantus insulin — a product that loses patent protection in 2015.
Page 1 of 2
blog comments powered by Disqus
Insider Monkey Headlines
Insider Monkey Small Cap Strategy
Insider Monkey Small Cap Strategy

Insider Monkey beat the market by 52 percentage points in 24 months Click to see monthly returns in table format!

Lists

10 High Margin Food Products to Build a Business Around

The 10 Most Expensive Clothing Stores in the United States to Get Decked Out At

The 5 Biggest Kickstarter Scams That Swindled Backers’ Donations

The 10 Most Expensive Boarding Schools In the World

50 Crazy Facts About Japan You Won’t Believe

Top 10 Least Expensive Hybrid Cars to Save the Planet With

The 10 Biggest ‘Gate’ Controversies in History

The 10 States with the Highest Nursing Shortages Leaving Their Hospitals Depleted

The 10 Best Value Investment Blogs that Every Investor Must Read

The 6 Cheapest Boarding Schools in Europe 2015

The 5 Most Expensive Cars To Insure in the World

The 10 Most Common Genetically Modified Foods

10 Self-Made Billionaires Who Came From Nothing

The 10 Most Expensive Cities to Live in North America

The 13 Most Expensive Headphones in the World to Represent

The Top 20 Wealthiest Soccer Teams in 2014

4 BuzzWorthy Cannabis Stocks And Some Smoking Derivative Plays

The 10 Healthiest Fast Food Chains in America to Dine At

The 5 Most Expensive Cat Food Brands You Can Spoil Your Kitty With

The 6 Best eCommerce Platforms for Small Businesses

The 10 Worst Mistakes an Entrepreneur Can Make

The 5 Most OP Characters in League of Legends to Carry Games and Crush Foes With

The 5 Best Foods to Eat Before Running that Will Help You Pound the Pavement

10 Glaring Plot Holes in The Walking Dead that a Zombie-Filled Bus Could Drive Through

The 5 Biggest Celebrity Stoners Who Love Their Reefer

The 10 Most Overrated Movies Of All Time by Out-of-Touch Critics

Top 6 Least Expensive Cruise Destinations For 2015 that Will Take You to Paradise

10 States with Lowest Substance Abuse Rates in America

The 14 Most Watched TV Finales Ever

The 10 Best Selling Role Playing Games of All Time for PC

10 Most Influential Papers In Economics

Top 8 Biggest Charities in the US

10 Worst Celebrity Career Moves Ever

Top 10 Best Paid Tennis Stars in the World

Top 6 Cities For The Ultra Rich to Live in Comfort

10 Cities with High Demand for Nurses

6 of the Worst Greeting Card Messages Ever Crafted

How to Make Money in ArcheAge and Build Your Empire

10 Foods To Eat To Lower Cholesterol Levels

The 10 Most Hated Television Characters of All Time

The 30 Worst Halloween Costume Ideas Ever Brought to Horrible Life

10 Vocational Skills in Demand Today with Jobs Waiting to be Filled

10 Best Places to Visit in Central and South America

The 10 Greatest Empires in History Which Nearly Conquered the World

The 6 Cheapest Boarding Schools In America 2015

5 Clear Reasons LoL is Better than DotA, Continues to Rule MOBAs

The Only 9 Teams with a Chance to Win the Super Bowl

The 15 Most Common Phobias in America that Induce Fits of Panic

Top 6 Least Expensive Tourist Destinations in 2014

Jim Goetz, Peter Fenton, Jim Breyer: Top 6 Venture Investors for 2014

Subscribe

Enter your email:

Delivered by FeedBurner

X

Thanks! An email with instructions is sent to !

Your email already exists in our database. Click here to go to your subscriptions

Insider Monkey returned 47.6% in its first year! Wondering How?

Download a complete edition of our newsletter for free!