Could This Safe Play Help Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY)?

Page 1 of 2

Note: This version has been amended to better reflect Victoza’s dosage recommendations.

At the American Diabetes Association meeting last month, Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY) presented promising data for the GLP-1 agonist dulaglutide. GLP-1s are a well-established diabetes drug class dominated by Novo Nordisk A/S (ADR) (NYSE:NVO) and Bristol Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE:BMY).

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY)

GLP-1 agonists are typically used as a second-line combo therapy for type 2 diabetes patients not responding to metformin and insulin. These drugs are generally well-tolerated and carry little risk of hypoglycemia, which makes this class one of the safest diabetes plays.

But how much could this safe play mean for Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY)’s overall health?

GLP-1 market

Twice-daily Byetta was the first GLP-1 to market with a Food and Drug Administration approval in 2005. But Victoza quickly took over after its 2010 approval due to a once-daily dosage.  Victoza has maintained a fairly steady climb ever since. The drug achieved 2012 sales of DKK 9.5 billion (or about $1.6 billion according to current conversion rates), and contributed 39% of the company’s overall sales growth.

Bydureon was brought out last year as a once-weekly version of Byetta. It’s still too early after launch to predict Bydureon’s sales growth, but EvaluatePharma pegged the drug as one of the top five “blockbuster duds” in the past year. Bydureon could see soft sales merely because Victoza got there first and patients don’t want to change treatments.

How does dulaglutide stack up?

Would the once-weekly dulaglutide hold its own in the GLP-1 market — or face a future even less certain than Bydureon’s?

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY) offered up data from three late-stage trials that showed dulaglutide outperforming Merck’s DPP-4 Januvia, Byetta, and metformin.  Dulaglutide helped patients control blood sugar better than the other drugs and also helped patients lose more weight.

Dulaglutide still has other competitor comparing trials underway. The late-stage trials include Lantus, the company’s own insulin Humalog, and — most importantly — one trial with Victoza. The Victoza trial won’t report until after dulaglutide goes before the FDA for approval later this year. But favorable results could push dulaglutide into a stronger market position.

Other new contenders

Sanofi SA (ADR) (NYSE:SNY)’s Lyxumia received FDA approval in the U.S. and Europe this past February. Lyxumia’s trial results were lackluster and drew criticism for being a Byetta clone. But, as I’ve written previously, Sanofi SA (ADR) (NYSE:SNY)’s really betting on this drug as a combo therapy for its $7 billion Lantus insulin — a product that loses patent protection in 2015.
Page 1 of 2
blog comments powered by Disqus
Insider Monkey Headlines
Insider Monkey Small Cap Strategy
Insider Monkey Small Cap Strategy

Insider Monkey beat the market by 52 percentage points in 24 months Click to see monthly returns in table format!

Lists

The 10 Countries with the Highest Suicide Rates

The 10 Most Technologically Advanced Countries in the World

The 10 Safest Countries in the World to Live in Peace

The 10 Top Selling Smartphones in the World 2014

The 12 Biggest Shopping Centers in the World

The 10 Friendliest Countries in the World

Qihoo 360 Technology Co Ltd (QIHU), Actavis plc (ACT), Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) Among 20 Long Ideas from Sohn Canada

The 10 Laziest Countries in the World

The 10 Most Polluted Countries in the World

The 10 Most Dangerous Cities in America 2014

The Top 10 Gold Producing Countries in the World

The 10 Tallest Buildings in the World

The 10 Richest Stand Up Comedians in the World

The 10 Fattest Countries in the World

The 5 Best Summer Jobs for Teens

The 10 Most Religious Countries in the World Keeping the Faith

The 10 Most Educated Countries in the World

The 10 Most Popular Cell Phones in the World

The 10 Drunkest Countries in the World

The 10 Most Expensive Private Schools in the World

The 10 Smallest Countries in the World

Walking Dead Season 5 Spoilers You’ll Wish You Didn’t Know

The 10 Poorest Countries in the World

The 10 Greenest Countries in the World

The Top 10 Countries with the Highest Population in the World

The 10 Most Visited Countries in the World

The Top 10 Star Wars Characters in the Iconic Series

The 10 Most Expensive Android Phones in the World

5 Reasons Why The Illuminati Is Real and a Threat to Society

The 6 Scariest Halloween Costumes Ever Screamed At

The 4 Biggest Hedge Fund Managers in the World Today

The 15 Most Densely Populated Countries in the World

The 10 Biggest Tea Drinking Countries in the World

Top 6 Ways to Improve Your Checkout Process and Close Sales

The 5 Most Profitable Online Businesses You Can Start Today

The 20 Most Profitable Hospitals in the US

The 5 Most Profitable Home Businesses to Start

The 7 Teams that Will Win the Stanley Cup in 2015

The Top 10 Most Expensive Digital Cameras to Snap Stunning Shots With

The 10 Highest Quality Fast Food Restaurants In America Today

The 8 Best Halloween Decorating Ideas to Spook Up Your House

10 Marvel Women that Should Get a Movie Right Now

The 20 Best Remixes of Popular Songs that Will Make You Forget the Originals

7 Most Expensive Cities in the World

5 Least Expensive Cities in the World

10 Celebrities Who Believe In Scientology

10 High Margin Food Products to Build a Business Around

The 10 Most Expensive Clothing Stores in the United States to Get Decked Out At

The 5 Biggest Kickstarter Scams That Swindled Backers’ Donations

The 10 Most Expensive Boarding Schools In the World

Subscribe

Enter your email:

Delivered by FeedBurner

X

Thanks! An email with instructions is sent to !

Your email already exists in our database. Click here to go to your subscriptions

Insider Monkey returned 47.6% in its first year! Wondering How?

Download a complete edition of our newsletter for free!