For yet another example of how inane the impact of analyst estimates can be, look no further than Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)'s stock price movement after announcing its Q4 and 2012 year-end earnings. In what was clearly a case of a knee-jerk reaction by the market, the bottom fell out of Amazon.com's stock price -- dropping nearly 6% during the trading day -- because it "missed estimates."
Thankfully, investors now have an alternative: after-hours trading. For those willing to take some time, dig through the financials, and get to the heart of the matter, after-hours trading is an opportunity to act on the questions that should have been asked during the trading day. Is the company growing? Are the key matrices used to gauge success being met, or exceeded?
The facts Both domestic and international sales results soared in Amazon.com's critical Q4, to over $12 billion in North America, and $9 billion overseas -- both up over 20% compared to the year-ago quarter. Well, those numbers sound pretty good, right? Apparently, the $21.27 billion in sales for the quarter, and $61 billion for the year, fell short of expectations by about $1 billion. Um, sorry?
Amazon.com's sales results look even better compared to the overall retail environment in the recently-completed holiday season. For most retailers, online or brick-and-mortar, 2012 ended with little more than a whimper. The retail industry was hoping for a bit more than the 14 % year-over-year improvement in sales seen during the period, but shoppers were hesitant to loosen their purse strings. But here's the thing; Amazon.com's revenues jumped 22% in Q4, easily outpacing the industry as a whole.
A look at Amazon.com's operating income really blows away analysts' notion of a "disappointing quarter." For the year, Amazon.com's operating income jumped 56%, and cash flow also increased compared to 2011. Also, Amazon.com's objective of lowering transportation expenses, thereby improving margins, by building strategically-located distribution centers, is finally beginning to pay off. In North America, margins skyrocketed to 5%, from 3% in Q4 2011. According to Amazon .com CFO Tom Szkutak, it will continue "...adding capacity during 2013," which should continue to positively impact margins.
To be fair to the analysts, not all Amazon's news was positive. Net income, though up from Q3, took a significant hit in Amazon.com's fiscal Q4 compared to last year, dropping 45%, to $97 million , well below analyst estimates . Expenses associated with its investments in distribution centers, and plopping down $1.4 billion for office space and property in the Seattle, Wa. area, affected Amazon.com's bottomline.